Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction, Tips & Odds
Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov
Match Preview
The model favours a narrow victory for Akhmat, projecting a scoreline of 1-0 against Krylia Sovetov. Akhmat currently sits in 13th place, having played four matches without a win, accumulating two points from two draws and two losses. Their goal-scoring has been limited, with just two goals netted, while their defence has conceded four. The team's inability to secure victories early in the season could be a concern, but they have shown resilience in earning draws. Krylia Sovetov, positioned just below Akhmat in 14th place, has also struggled to find form this season. With only one point from three matches, they have yet to secure a win, recording two draws and one loss. Their goal tally stands at just one, with three goals conceded, which highlights their struggles in both attacking and defending. The lack of a strong offensive presence could hinder their chances in this encounter. According to the model output, Akhmat holds a slight edge with a win probability of around 55% compared to Krylia's 25%. However, a key market indicator suggests that a draw is still very much in play, given both teams' recent forms. One caveat to consider is that if Akhmat's scoring woes continue, they may struggle to convert their chances into goals. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has crafted this model to provide a data-driven perspective on the match.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Akhmat manage games at home, conceding just 0.90 goals per match. Krylia Sovetov score 1.38 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
Akhmat have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Akhmat clean sheets, in line with their 39% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Akhmat are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.76 | 3.82 | 4.75 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| 1.80 | 3.92 | 4.86 | 1.97 | 1.97 | 1.80 | 1.92 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Akhmat leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov, Akhmat has won 5 times, Krylia Sovetov has won 2 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested; however, Akhmat has secured more victories, including three wins by a margin of two goals or more. Notably, Krylia Sovetov's last win against Akhmat was in July 2023, suggesting a shift in dominance towards Akhmat in recent encounters. The presence of two draws further highlights the potential for tightly fought matches.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  CSKA Moscow | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | WWDDW |
| 4 |  Zenit | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 9 | LWLWW |
| 5 |  Dinamo Makhachkala | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 9 | LWLWW |
| 6 |  Dynamo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 9 | Akhmat | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | WLDLD |
| 12 | Krylia Sovetov | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 | WLLDD |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 | LDDLD |
| 15 |  Fakel | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 16 |  Akron | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 2 | LDDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAkhmat have won 11 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Akhmat 1-2 and beat Akhmat 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 11D 7L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Krylia Sovetov have won 3 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Dinamo Makhachkala 1-2 and drew with CSKA Moscow 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 14L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAkhmat
No reported absences
Krylia Sovetov
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Akhmat have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Krylia Sovetov 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Akhmat have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 42% of their matches and averaging 1.4 goals per game. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Akhmat player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
