Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Tips & Odds
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
Match Preview
The model favours Atletico Madrid to win against Alaves, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned second in La Liga, Atletico Madrid has demonstrated strong form this season with five wins, one draw, and only one loss from their seven matches. They have scored 16 goals while conceding just 7, resulting in a positive goal difference of 9, which highlights their offensive capabilities and solid defence. On the other hand, Alaves sits in sixth place with 11 points from seven matches, having achieved three wins, two draws, and two losses. Their goal tally stands at 11 goals for and 6 against, giving them a goal difference of 5. While they have shown resilience, their recent form, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in the last five matches, suggests they may struggle against a more consistent opponent like Atletico. The model indicates a 47.1% probability of an Atletico Madrid victory, alongside a 26.1% chance for Alaves to win and a 26.8% likelihood of a draw. One potential caveat for Atletico is their recent inconsistency, having lost their last two matches. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis comes from an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Atletico Madrid have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Atletico Madrid are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.20 | 3.74 | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.97 | 1.72 | 2.00 | |
| 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 4.25 | 3.76 | 1.87 | 1.91 | 1.98 | — | — | |
| 3.73 | 3.28 | 1.81 | 1.84 | 2.02 | — | — | |
| 3.90 | 3.50 | 1.85 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 4.33 | 3.60 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 4.32 | 3.84 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 2.03 | 1.72 | 2.02 | |
Betano | 4.10 | 3.70 | 1.87 | 1.88 | 1.98 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.80 | 1.79 | 1.88 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Atletico Madrid leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Alaves and Atletico Madrid, Atletico has won 6 times, Alaves has won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive rivalry, with several narrow matches, as seen in the 1-0 and 2-1 results. However, Atletico has recorded some heavier wins, including a 4-1 victory. Alaves last won against Atletico in April 2024, suggesting a challenge in consistently overcoming their opponents in recent encounters. Overall, while Alaves has had some success, Atletico's dominance in the fixture is evident.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 24 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 16 | DWWWL |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 | LWWDL |
| 6 | Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 | DLLWW |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 | WLDLL |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 20 |  Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 | LLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAlaves have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Alaves 0-1 and beat Alaves 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 10D 10L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Atletico Madrid have won 7 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include beat Real Sociedad 0-3 and lost to Liverpool 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 4D 15L from the last 38 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAlaves
No reported absences
Atletico Madrid
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Alaves have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Atletico Madrid 5.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atletico Madrid have generated 1.60 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atletico Madrid player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
