Inter vs Parma Prediction, Tips & Odds
Inter vs Parma
Match Preview
The model strongly favours Inter to win against Parma, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Inter currently sits in 2nd place in Serie A, having made an impressive start to the season with four wins and one draw from their first five matches. They have scored 15 goals while conceding 8, resulting in a positive goal difference of 7. Their attacking prowess has been evident, and they are averaging 3 goals per match, which underlines their offensive strength. In contrast, Parma is positioned 15th in the league with only one victory in their first five games. They have netted just 4 goals and allowed 7, leading to a negative goal difference of 3. Their season has been challenging, marked by inconsistent performances, as reflected in their recent form of one win, one draw, and three losses. This lack of offensive output could hinder their ability to compete against a high-flying team like Inter. The model gives Inter an 84.4% win probability, with a projected score of 3-1. However, a caveat to consider is that if Parma manages to score early, it could shift the momentum in their favour. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 36% of matches. Parma average 0.8 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Inter have been the stronger side, winning 61% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 Inter win as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Inter clean sheets, in line with their 36% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Inter are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Inter vs Parma| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.14 | 8.70 | 17.50 | 1.32 | 3.00 | 2.03 | 1.70 | |
| 1.13 | 8.50 | 23.00 | 1.29 | 3.30 | 2.15 | 1.67 | |
| 1.15 | 9.27 | 15.70 | 1.33 | 3.25 | — | — | |
| 1.13 | 6.86 | 11.08 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.14 | 8.00 | 15.00 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.14 | 8.50 | 15.00 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 1.16 | 9.85 | 19.50 | 1.32 | 3.00 | 2.03 | 1.72 | |
Betano | 1.16 | 7.90 | 16.50 | 1.37 | 3.10 | 2.07 | 1.70 |
BetVictor | 1.12 | 8.00 | 18.00 | 1.34 | 2.90 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Inter leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between Inter and Parma, Inter has won 7 times, with 3 draws and Parma yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable outcome for Inter, with several matches ending in narrow victories, such as 2-1 and 2-0, alongside a couple of draws. Notably, Parma has not won against Inter in this stretch, highlighting a one-sided trend. Although there have been a few closely contested matches, the overall dominance by Inter suggests a significant challenge for Parma in this fixture.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonInter have won 11 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lumezzane 2-0 and beat Udinese 5-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 9D 4L from the last 33 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Parma have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Como 2-1 and lost to Juventus 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 10D 12L from the last 31 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersInter
No reported absences
Parma
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Inter have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Parma 3.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Inter have generated 1.90 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 61% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Inter player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
