Lazio vs Monza Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lazio vs Monza
Match Preview
The model favours Lazio to win this match against Monza, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned third in Serie A, Lazio has demonstrated strong form this season with four wins and one draw from their first five matches, scoring eight goals while conceding only three. This solid goal difference of +5 highlights their defensive strength and offensive capability. On the other hand, Monza finds itself in a precarious position at 16th in the standings, having managed only one win, one draw, and three losses in their opening five fixtures. With eight goals scored but twelve conceded, their goal difference of -4 indicates significant defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited by Lazio's attacking players. According to the model, Lazio has a 55.5% probability of winning, while the chances of a draw stand at 26.0% and Monza's winning probability is at 18.5%. One key market to note is the likelihood of over 2.5 goals, set at 45.4%. However, a potential caveat is that if Monza can tighten their defense and capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities, they could pose a challenge. For more details on how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results from the season to generate these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Lazio have been the stronger side, winning 49% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Lazio win as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Lazio clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Lazio are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lazio vs Monza| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.71 | 3.74 | 5.15 | 2.09 | 1.75 | 1.98 | 1.74 | |
| 1.70 | 3.69 | 5.14 | 2.11 | 1.75 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.25 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.76 | 3.86 | 5.30 | 2.16 | 1.81 | 1.98 | 1.75 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Lazio leads 4-0)Lazio holds a dominant head-to-head record against Monza, with 4 wins, 2 draws, and no victories for Monza in their last 6 encounters. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Lazio to secure narrow wins, with three of their victories coming by a single goal margin. However, the 5-1 result in February 2025 highlights a potential for heavy defeats for Monza. The matches have also shown a pattern of low-scoring draws, with two fixtures ending 1-1 and another 2-2. Monza has not emerged victorious against Lazio in this sample, underscoring their struggles in these matchups.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLazio have won 9 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Juve Stabia 3-3 and beat Arezzo 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 10D 8L from the last 35 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Monza have won 3 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Monza 2-2 and lost to Lecce 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 4D 7L from the last 18 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLazio
No reported absences
Monza
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Lazio have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Monza 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lazio have generated 1.19 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 49% of them. They put 3.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lazio player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
