Genoa vs Fiorentina Prediction, Tips & Odds
Genoa vs Fiorentina
Match Preview
The model favours Fiorentina to win against Genoa, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 17th in Serie A, Fiorentina has had a mixed start to the season, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their first five matches. They have scored six goals but conceded twelve, resulting in a goal difference of -6. Key stats that highlight their struggle include their defensive vulnerabilities, which have contributed to their position near the relegation zone. On the other hand, Genoa sits at the bottom of the table in 19th place, having yet to secure a victory this season. Their record shows four losses and one draw, with just three goals scored and ten conceded, leading to a goal difference of -7. This poor form, including only one point from five matches, reflects significant challenges in both attack and defense, making it difficult for them to turn their season around. According to the model, Fiorentina has a 41.1% chance of winning this match, while Genoa's chances stand at 30.5%. With a projected score of 2-1, the model also indicates a 47.5% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 53.1% chance for both teams to score. A potential caveat for Fiorentina is their inconsistency, which could lead to an unexpected result. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Genoa manage games at home, conceding just 1.44 goals per match. Fiorentina score 1.58 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.6% probability.
Fiorentina have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Fiorentina are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Genoa vs Fiorentina| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.14 | 3.38 | 2.32 | 2.01 | 1.81 | 1.75 | 1.96 | |
| 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 3.33 | 3.21 | 2.37 | 2.14 | 1.76 | — | — | |
| 2.84 | 3.01 | 2.24 | 2.07 | 1.79 | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.25 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 3.23 | 3.48 | 2.39 | 2.08 | 1.87 | 1.75 | 1.98 | |
Betano | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 2.05 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.25 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Fiorentina leads 5-0)In the last 10 matches between Genoa and Fiorentina, both teams have won 5 times each, with 5 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested games; however, Fiorentina has recorded a significant 6-0 victory and a 4-1 win, suggesting they have occasionally dominated. The presence of five draws highlights the tendency for tightly fought matches, while Genoa has not won any of the last 10 encounters, reflecting a struggle to secure a victory against Fiorentina in recent history.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | DWLLL |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGenoa have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Genoa 1-0 and drew with Genoa 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 14L from the last 32 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Fiorentina have won 8 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Venezia 2-4 and lost to AS Roma 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 10D 10L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGenoa
No reported absences
Fiorentina
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Genoa have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Fiorentina 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fiorentina have generated 1.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fiorentina player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
