Lecce vs Bologna Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lecce vs Bologna
Match Preview
The model favours Bologna to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bologna currently sits in 18th place, struggling to find form with no wins in their last five matches, resulting in two draws and three losses. Their goal-scoring has been a challenge, with only three goals scored so far this season, highlighting a pressing need for improvement in their attacking play. In contrast, Lecce occupies 12th place with two wins and three losses from their opening five fixtures. They have managed to score five goals but have also conceded ten, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Lecce's recent form shows a mixed bag, with their last five matches yielding two wins and three losses. This inconsistency may affect their confidence going into the match against Bologna. The model gives Bologna a win probability of 47.2%, while Lecce's chance stands at 24.1%. The projected score suggests a competitive encounter with a potential for over 2.5 goals at 47.5%. A key caveat is that if Lecce can tighten their defense and capitalize on Bologna's current struggles, they could turn the tide in their favor. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Lecce manage games at home, conceding just 1.35 goals per match. Bologna score 1.09 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.8% probability.
Lecce have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Lecce are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lecce vs Bologna| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.10 | 3.30 | 2.01 | 2.00 | 1.82 | 1.79 | 1.92 | |
| 4.17 | 3.21 | 2.00 | 2.02 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 3.60 | 3.25 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.95 | |
| 3.70 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 4.22 | 3.40 | 2.07 | 2.07 | 1.88 | 1.79 | 1.94 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bologna leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between Lecce and Bologna, Bologna has won 7 times, Lecce has drawn 3 times, and Lecce has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a significant advantage for Bologna, with several matches ending in decisive wins, including a 4-0 victory and multiple 2-0 results. While there have been three draws, the majority of encounters have seen Bologna outscoring Lecce, suggesting a one-sided trend in their recent history. Lecce's last win against Bologna dates back several matches, highlighting their struggle to overcome this opponent.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 | LWLLW |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLecce have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lecce 3-2 and lost to Lecce 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 16L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Bologna have won 9 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Napoli 1-0 and lost to Atalanta 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 14L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLecce
No reported absences
Bologna
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Lecce have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Bologna 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lecce have generated 1.03 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 3.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lecce player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
