Como vs AS Roma Prediction, Tips & Odds
Como vs AS Roma
Match Preview
The model favours AS Roma to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting at the top of the Serie A standings, AS Roma has made an impressive start to the season with four wins and one draw from their five matches. They have scored 14 goals while conceding just three, showcasing a strong goal difference of 11. This solid performance underlines their attacking prowess and defensive stability. Como, positioned 8th in the league, has also enjoyed a commendable start, securing three wins, one draw, and one loss. Their recent form, with four wins in their last five matches, highlights their ability to compete effectively. However, their goal difference of 3 indicates that while they are scoring, they are also allowing goals, which may pose challenges against a high-caliber opponent like Roma. According to the model, AS Roma has a 35.6% chance of winning, while Como's chances stand at 37.2%. The probability of both teams scoring is 57.2%, suggesting a competitive match. One caveat to consider is that if Como can exploit any defensive lapses from Roma, they could turn the match in their favour. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.7% probability.
Como have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Como are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Como vs AS Roma| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.56 | 3.56 | 2.67 | 1.79 | 2.04 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
| 2.55 | 3.55 | 2.66 | 1.78 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.62 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.64 | 3.66 | 2.75 | 1.85 | 2.11 | 1.60 | 2.22 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between Como and AS Roma stands at two wins for each side with no draws in their last four encounters. The matches have been competitive, with each team securing narrow victories, as evidenced by three of the four games finishing with a scoreline of 2-1. Como's two wins included a 2-0 home victory, while AS Roma's wins were both by a single goal. Overall, this record shows a balanced rivalry with no clear dominance from either side in recent meetings.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 8 | Como | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 10 | LWWWD |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonComo have won 8 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Como 2-1 and beat Como 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 11D 5L from the last 33 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
AS Roma have won 7 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Torino 0-2 and drew with Fenerbahçe 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 10D 7L from the last 32 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersComo
No reported absences
AS Roma
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Como have averaged 7.1 corners per match at home; AS Roma 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Como have generated 2.01 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Como player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
