Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin
Match Preview
The model favours Sarmiento Junin to win against Aldosivi, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Sarmiento currently sits in 11th place in the Liga Profesional Argentina standings, with a record of 6 wins, 1 draw, and 9 losses from 16 matches. They have scored 13 goals while conceding 20, leading to a goal difference of -7. Despite a mixed form recently, with two wins in their last five matches, Sarmiento has shown more resilience compared to their opponents. Aldosivi, on the other hand, are struggling significantly this season, positioned 14th with no wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, yielding just 8 points. They have managed to score only 6 goals while conceding 19, resulting in a goal difference of -13. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, which highlights their ongoing difficulties in securing victories. The model indicates a win probability of around 55% for Sarmiento Junin, with a projected score of 1-0. However, it is important to note that if Aldosivi can improve their attacking efficiency and convert chances, they could disrupt Sarmiento's plans. The full method, which leverages expected goals and actual results across the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Aldosivi have kept a clean sheet in 23% of matches. Sarmiento Junin average 1.1 goals per game.
Aldosivi manage games at home, conceding just 1.33 goals per match. Sarmiento Junin score 1.10 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.1% probability.
Aldosivi have been the stronger side, winning 13% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Aldosivi are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.52 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 2.48 | 1.50 | 2.02 | 1.69 | |
| 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.88 | 2.45 | 1.50 | — | — | |
| 2.55 | 3.03 | 3.06 | 2.59 | 1.51 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.90 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.73 | |
| 2.45 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 2.57 | 3.01 | 3.01 | 2.52 | 1.52 | 2.02 | 1.71 | |
Betano | 2.55 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 2.52 | 1.55 | 2.02 | 1.75 |
BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.36 | 1.50 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sarmiento Junin leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Aldosivi and Sarmiento Junin, Sarmiento Junin leads with 5 wins, while Aldosivi has 2 victories and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Sarmiento Junin to secure narrow victories, with half of their wins coming by a margin of 1-0 or 2-0. Aldosivi's last win against Sarmiento Junin was in December 2016, highlighting a significant gap in their recent head-to-head success. The overall record suggests Sarmiento Junin has had the upper hand in this rivalry, particularly in recent fixtures.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | DWWLW |
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LWLDL |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | LWWWD |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WDWDD |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | LDDWD |
| 11 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 19 | LDWLW |
| 14 | Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | DWDDD |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DLDDD |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LLLDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAldosivi have won 3 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Aldosivi 1-0 and lost to Aldosivi 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 10D 16L from the last 30 games (13% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Sarmiento Junin have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sarmiento Junin 3-1 and beat Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 3D 14L from the last 29 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAldosivi
No reported absences
Sarmiento Junin
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Luis Lobo Medina has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Aldosivi have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Sarmiento Junin 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aldosivi have generated 0.87 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 13% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aldosivi player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
