Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin
Match Preview
The model favours Atletico Tucuman to win against Sarmiento Junin, with a projected scoreline of 1-0. Atletico Tucuman currently sits in 13th place in the Liga Profesional, having accumulated 14 points from 16 matches. Their recent form shows a slight uptick, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Key to their performance has been their ability to score, albeit modestly, with 15 goals this season, while the defence has been relatively solid, conceding 20. In contrast, Sarmiento Junin is positioned 11th, with 19 points from the same number of games. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, particularly in recent matches where they have struggled, with only one win in their last five outings. They have scored just 13 goals this season, which highlights their difficulties in attacking play, while also conceding 20 goals, indicating vulnerabilities at the back. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 45% for Atletico Tucuman, with a projected score of 1-0. A potential caveat for this prediction is that if Sarmiento manages to find their scoring touch, they could pose a significant threat, especially given their higher league position. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Atletico Tucuman have kept a clean sheet in 38% of matches. Sarmiento Junin average 0.9 goals per game.
Atletico Tucuman manage games at home, conceding just 1.05 goals per match. Sarmiento Junin score 0.90 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 21.0% probability.
Atletico Tucuman have been the stronger side, winning 33% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Atletico Tucuman win as the most likely scoreline at 21.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Atletico Tucuman clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Atletico Tucuman are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.81 | 3.20 | 5.00 | 2.62 | 1.48 | 2.30 | 1.55 | |
| 1.80 | 3.20 | 4.90 | 2.57 | 1.40 | 2.33 | 1.52 | |
| 1.90 | 3.25 | 4.20 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.00 | 4.80 | — | — | 2.40 | 1.53 | |
| 1.75 | 3.20 | 5.25 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.38 | 1.53 | |
| 1.83 | 3.26 | 4.99 | 2.57 | 1.40 | 2.33 | 1.54 | |
| 1.80 | 3.00 | 4.80 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.40 | 1.53 | |
Betano | 1.82 | 3.25 | 5.30 | 2.77 | 1.47 | 2.40 | 1.53 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.20 | 5.25 | 2.53 | 1.44 | 2.38 | 1.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Atletico Tucuman leads 5-4)Atletico Tucuman hold the edge in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 meetings with 1 draws and 4 Sarmiento Junin wins. The record points to a tie Atletico Tucuman have controlled for years, though the draws show Sarmiento Junin have at times kept it tight.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | WLLWD |
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | WDLDW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | DLLWW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | LLLWW |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WWLDD |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | WWWLW |
| 11 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 19 | LLLWL |
| 13 | Atletico Tucuman | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 14 |  Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 | LLDDL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | LLWDW |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | DLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtletico Tucuman have won 3 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Atletico Tucuman 0-0 and drew with Atletico Tucuman 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 6D 8L from the last 21 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Sarmiento Junin have won 1 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sarmiento Junin 3-2 and lost to Belgrano Cordoba 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 2D 12L from the last 21 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtletico Tucuman
No reported absences
Sarmiento Junin
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Atletico Tucuman have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Sarmiento Junin 3.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atletico Tucuman have generated 0.47 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 33% of them. They put 2.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atletico Tucuman player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
