Flamengo vs Vitoria Prediction, Tips & Odds
Flamengo vs Vitoria
Match Preview
The model favours Flamengo to win against Vitoria, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Flamengo currently sits in second place in Serie A, boasting an impressive record of 11 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses from 18 matches. With 35 goals scored and only 16 conceded, their goal difference of +19 highlights their strong defensive capabilities and effective attack. Their recent form has been particularly strong, with four wins and a draw in their last five matches, indicating they are in a solid rhythm heading into this fixture. In contrast, Vitoria occupies the 11th position with 26 points from 19 matches, having achieved 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses. With 22 goals scored and 25 conceded, their negative goal difference of -3 suggests vulnerabilities in both attack and defense. While they have shown some resilience with three wins in their last five matches, their inconsistency could hinder their performance against a higher-ranked opponent like Flamengo. The model gives Flamengo a win probability of approximately 65%, while Vitoria's chances are around 20%. A key market to consider is Flamengo's odds to win by at least a two-goal margin. However, a potential caveat is that if Vitoria can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Flamengo, they could complicate the match. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Flamengo have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Flamengo win as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Flamengo clean sheets, in line with their 44% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Flamengo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Flamengo vs Vitoria| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.27 | 5.20 | 11.50 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 1.27 | 5.20 | 10.75 | 1.68 | 2.14 | 2.14 | 1.62 | |
| 1.22 | 5.00 | 10.00 | 1.60 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 1.29 | 5.00 | 10.00 | — | — | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 1.27 | 5.25 | 10.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 1.30 | 5.48 | 11.30 | 1.71 | 2.18 | 2.14 | 1.63 | |
Betano | 1.30 | 5.40 | 10.50 | 1.70 | 2.22 | 2.12 | 1.67 |
BetVictor | 1.29 | 5.25 | 9.50 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flamengo leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Flamengo and Vitoria, Flamengo has won 7 times, with 2 draws and Vitoria securing just 1 win. The scorelines indicate a dominant trend for Flamengo, particularly highlighted by a significant 8-0 victory. While there have been a few tight contests, such as the 2-2 draws, Vitoria's only win came in 2026, making it their most recent success against Flamengo. Overall, the historical record suggests a strong advantage for Flamengo, with Vitoria struggling to find consistent success in their encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 | WWWDD |
| 2 | Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 37 | WWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 36 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 32 | DDLWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 31 | DDWWL |
| 6 |  RB Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 30 | DWWWL |
| 11 | Vitoria | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 26 | DWLWL |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 20 | DWLWL |
| 19 |  Remo | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 18 | LWLWD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFlamengo have won 13 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Sao Paulo 1-1 and beat Olimpia 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 24W 7D 5L from the last 36 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vitoria have won 4 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Vitoria 0-0 and beat Fortaleza EC 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 8D 10L from the last 36 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFlamengo
No reported absences
Vitoria
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Flamengo have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Vitoria 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Flamengo have generated 1.53 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flamengo player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
