Coritiba vs Cruzeiro Prediction, Tips & Odds
Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
Match Preview
The model favours Coritiba to win against Cruzeiro, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Coritiba currently sits in 7th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 26 points from 18 matches. Their season has been characterized by a balanced goal difference of zero, with 24 goals scored and 24 conceded. Although their recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses, their overall performance has been solid enough to keep them in contention for a higher league position. On the other hand, Cruzeiro is positioned 13th, just below Coritiba with 24 points from the same number of matches. Their goal difference of -4, with 24 goals scored and 28 conceded, indicates defensive vulnerabilities. While Cruzeiro has shown improvement in their recent form, with three wins and one draw in their last five matches, they still struggle to maintain consistency, which could be a concern against a more stable opponent like Coritiba. The model gives Coritiba a win probability of approximately 55%, while Cruzeiro's chances are around 25%. The key market percentage suggests a good likelihood of Coritiba securing the victory. However, a potential caveat is that if Cruzeiro's recent form continues to improve, they could pose a greater threat than their overall statistics indicate. The full method used for this prediction is explained in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 31% of matches. Cruzeiro average 1.3 goals per game.
Coritiba manage games at home, conceding just 1.24 goals per match. Cruzeiro score 1.29 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.6% probability.
Cruzeiro have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Cruzeiro are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Coritiba vs Cruzeiro| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.26 | 2.27 | 1.61 | 1.90 | 1.78 | |
| 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.25 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 3.36 | 3.16 | 2.39 | 2.34 | 1.64 | — | — | |
| 3.09 | 3.15 | 2.23 | 2.17 | 1.71 | — | — | |
| 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.30 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 3.34 | 3.19 | 2.33 | 2.31 | 1.64 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 3.30 | 3.15 | 2.25 | 2.18 | 1.67 | 1.86 | 1.84 | |
Betano | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.32 | 2.32 | 1.65 | 1.93 | 1.80 |
Superbet | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.32 | 2.22 | 1.67 | 1.92 | 1.83 |
BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.25 | 2.18 | 1.58 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Coritiba leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Coritiba and Cruzeiro over the last 10 matches stands at 4 wins for Coritiba, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Cruzeiro. This indicates a relatively balanced matchup, though Coritiba has a slight edge. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests and a few decisive results, with three matches ending in draws and several low-scoring games, including four matches with a score of 1-0. Notably, Cruzeiro's last victory in this fixture dates back to October 2021, suggesting a trend of Coritiba's recent dominance in their encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 22 | 48 | DWLWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 42 | WDDWW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 40 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 35 | DDDDD |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 | WWLWD |
| 6 |  Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 33 | DDDDW |
| 10 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 30 | WLDLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 22 | DLWLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 10 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCoritiba have won 5 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Chapecoense-sc 2-1 and lost to Cruzeiro 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 10D 9L from the last 29 games (34% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Cruzeiro have won 7 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Chapecoense-sc 0-0 and beat Coritiba 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 13D 7L from the last 38 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCoritiba4-2-3-1Confirmed
Cruzeiro4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersCoritiba2
Cruzeiro6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
W. do Nascimento has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Coritiba have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Cruzeiro 6.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Cruzeiro have generated 1.75 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Cruzeiro player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
