Fluminense vs Bahia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fluminense vs Bahia
Match Preview
The model favours Fluminense to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in third place in the Serie A standings, Fluminense has demonstrated solid performance throughout the season with a record of nine wins, four draws, and five losses from 18 matches. Their goal difference of plus five, alongside scoring 28 goals while conceding 23, highlights their offensive capabilities and relative defensive stability. Bahia, positioned sixth, has also shown promise with seven wins, five draws, and five losses from 17 matches. However, their goal difference of plus two, with 25 goals scored and 23 conceded, suggests that they may struggle defensively against stronger opponents. Despite a recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, they will need to improve their consistency to secure a positive result in this encounter. According to the model, Fluminense holds a win probability of approximately 55%, with the projected score being 2-1. One key market statistic indicates that Fluminense is favoured by around 60% in betting odds. However, a potential caveat is that if Bahia can exploit any defensive lapses from Fluminense, they could certainly challenge for points. The full methodology, based on expected goals and actual results, is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
Fluminense have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Fluminense clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Fluminense are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fluminense vs Bahia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.55 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.72 | 3.62 | 4.65 | 1.83 | 1.94 | 1.75 | 1.94 | |
| 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.75 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.75 | 3.72 | 5.08 | 1.89 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 1.81 | 3.36 | 3.90 | 1.86 | 2.00 | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.50 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.75 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.77 | 3.72 | 4.78 | 1.87 | 1.98 | 1.75 | 1.97 | |
| 1.72 | 3.65 | 4.75 | 1.81 | 1.98 | 1.72 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 1.78 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.88 | 1.98 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
Superbet | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.75 | 1.82 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.60 | 1.79 | 1.88 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Fluminense leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Fluminense and Bahia, Fluminense has won 5 times, Bahia has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested; however, Fluminense has managed to secure three 2-0 victories, suggesting a tendency to achieve comfortable wins. Bahia's most recent win was in October 2023, while Fluminense has been more successful in recent encounters, particularly in the last four matches where they have won three times. Overall, the results show a relatively balanced but slightly favorable record for Fluminense.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 22 | 48 | DWLWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 42 | WDDWW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 40 | WDWWW |
| 4 | Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 35 | DDDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 | WWLWD |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 33 | DDDDW |
| 19 |  Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 22 | DLWLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 10 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFluminense have won 13 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Vasco DA Gama 1-3 and drew with Bahia 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 13D 8L from the last 38 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bahia have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Fluminense 0-0 and drew with Atletico-MG 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 9L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFluminense4-2-3-1Confirmed
Bahia3-1-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
12 playersFluminense5
Bahia7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Fluminense have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Bahia 7.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fluminense have generated 1.27 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fluminense player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
