Benfica vs FC ST. Gallen Prediction, Tips & Odds
Benfica vs FC ST. Gallen
Match Preview
The model favours Benfica to win against FC St. Gallen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Benfica has had a mixed season so far, with their recent form showing two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. This inconsistency may raise some concerns, but they remain a strong contender, particularly at home where they typically perform well. On the other hand, FC St. Gallen has shown a more positive trend in their last five matches, securing three wins, one draw, and one loss. Their recent form suggests they are capable of competing effectively, but they will face a challenging environment playing away against a historically strong team like Benfica. According to the model output, Benfica has a win probability of 65%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the over/under goals line, which may reflect expectations of a competitive match. However, it is important to note that Benfica's inconsistent recent form could lead to an upset. The full method of our analysis, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, leverages expected goals and actual results across the season to inform these predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Benfica have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 Benfica win as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Benfica clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Benfica are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Benfica vs FC ST. Gallen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.15 | 8.10 | 13.50 | 1.30 | 3.35 | 1.93 | 1.75 | |
| 1.10 | 9.10 | 17.50 | 1.25 | 3.30 | 1.94 | 1.75 | |
| 1.12 | 8.50 | 16.00 | 1.29 | 3.30 | 1.95 | 1.73 | |
| 1.10 | 9.71 | 20.00 | 1.39 | 2.84 | — | — | |
| 1.13 | 6.38 | 10.12 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.11 | 8.50 | 17.00 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.11 | 9.00 | 13.00 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 1.11 | 10.50 | 20.00 | 1.25 | 3.30 | 1.94 | 1.77 | |
| 1.11 | 8.00 | 18.00 | 1.32 | 3.00 | 2.14 | 1.61 | |
Betano | 1.19 | 8.25 | 16.00 | 1.33 | 3.35 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
Superbet | 1.15 | 8.50 | 14.00 | 1.32 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 1.78 |
BetVictor | 1.12 | 8.50 | 18.00 | 1.29 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Benfica and FC St. Gallen shows one draw, with no wins for either side. Their only encounter ended in a 1-1 stalemate, indicating a tightly contested match. With just this single fixture to analyze, there is not enough data to suggest a clear advantage for either team. The draw reflects a balanced contest, with both clubs managing to score, but neither able to secure a victory.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonBenfica have won 11 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Benfica 2-2 and beat Benfica 6-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 4L from the last 27 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FC ST. Gallen have won 10 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat FC ST. Gallen 0-3 and beat Sheriff Tiraspol 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 10D 4L from the last 33 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBenficaConfirmed
FC ST. GallenConfirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersBenfica
No reported absences
FC ST. Gallen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
F. Badstubner has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Benfica have averaged 8.2 corners per match at home; FC ST. Gallen 5.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Benfica have generated 2.79 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 6.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Benfica player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
