Santos vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction, Tips & Odds
Santos vs Chapecoense-sc
Match Preview
The model favours Santos to win against Chapecoense-sc, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Santos currently sits in 15th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 21 points from 18 matches. Their recent form shows an improvement with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Key stats indicate they have scored 26 goals while conceding 29, resulting in a goal difference of -3, which reflects a competitive edge over their upcoming opponents. On the other hand, Chapecoense-sc is languishing at the bottom of the table in 20th place, with only 9 points from 17 matches and a disappointing record of one win, six draws, and ten losses. Their goal-scoring has been a significant issue, managing just 17 goals while conceding 33, leading to a goal difference of -16. Although they have secured two wins in their last five matches, their overall season performance has been lacking, making it difficult to expect a strong showing against Santos. According to the model output, Santos has a win probability of approximately 60%, while the projected score remains at 2-1. One notable caveat is that if Chapecoense-sc can find a way to exploit Santos' defensive weaknesses, they could potentially disrupt the predicted outcome. The full method of this analysis is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
Santos have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Santos win as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Santos clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Santos are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Santos vs Chapecoense-sc| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.49 | 4.20 | 6.20 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 3.90 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 1.51 | 4.28 | 6.83 | 1.76 | 2.12 | 1.85 | 1.87 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Santos leads 5-4)The head-to-head record between Santos and Chapecoense is fairly competitive, with Santos winning 5 matches, Chapecoense winning 4, and 1 match ending in a draw over the last 10 encounters. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with several narrow victories, particularly for Santos, who had three 1-0 wins. However, Chapecoense also managed two noteworthy wins, including a 4-2 result. Overall, the matches show a balance, though Santos has a slight edge, especially in recent years, as Chapecoense last won in November 2018.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 34 | WLDWD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 31 | DLWDL |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 30 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  RB Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 29 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 26 | WLDLD |
| 16 | Santos | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 21 | LWLLW |
| 18 |  Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 18 | WLWDW |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 16 | LWLDW |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | -16 | 9 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSantos have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat União São João 3-0 and beat Vitoria 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 12D 10L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chapecoense-sc have won 4 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include beat Chapecoense-sc 1-2 and lost to Avai 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 9D 15L from the last 35 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSantos
No reported absences
Chapecoense-sc
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Santos have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Chapecoense-sc 3.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Santos have generated 1.20 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 3.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Santos player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
