Cruz Azul vs Puebla Prediction, Tips & Odds
Cruz Azul vs Puebla
Match Preview
The model favours Cruz Azul to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Puebla. Cruz Azul has shown steady form recently, going unbeaten in their last five matches with two wins and three draws. This consistency places them in a strong position as they aim to climb the standings. In contrast, Puebla has struggled significantly, managing only one win in their last five matches, with four consecutive losses. This poor run has likely impacted their overall confidence and league position, making it difficult for them to compete effectively against a team like Cruz Azul. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Cruz Azul, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat to consider is that if Puebla can find their form and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Cruz Azul, they could pose a threat. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Cruz Azul have been the stronger side, winning 58% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Cruz Azul win as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Cruz Azul clean sheets, in line with their 24% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Cruz Azul are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Cruz Azul vs Puebla| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.40 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.77 | 1.95 | |
| 1.32 | 5.30 | 7.50 | 1.56 | 2.35 | 1.81 | 1.87 | |
| 1.30 | 5.50 | 7.50 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| 1.35 | 5.71 | 8.04 | 1.58 | 2.49 | — | — | |
| 1.33 | 4.70 | 7.34 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.30 | 4.80 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 1.36 | 5.25 | 7.00 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.33 | 5.30 | 7.50 | 1.56 | 2.35 | 1.81 | 1.90 | |
| 1.32 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 1.60 | 2.18 | 1.85 | 1.79 | |
Betano | 1.35 | 5.70 | 6.90 | 1.62 | 2.37 | 1.88 | 1.85 |
Superbet | 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.10 | 1.59 | 2.27 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 1.55 | 2.25 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cruz Azul leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Cruz Azul and Puebla, Cruz Azul has won 5 times, drawn 3 times, and Puebla has won 2 times. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive series, with several closely contested matches; however, Cruz Azul's victories often featured narrow margins, such as 1-0 and 2-1 results. Puebla's wins include a couple of higher-scoring matches, but overall, the games have tended to be low-scoring, with only three matches surpassing two goals. Puebla last won against Cruz Azul in November 2023, suggesting they have struggled to maintain consistent success in recent encounters.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 2 |  Club Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 |  Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | WLW |
| 4 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 |  Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | WLW |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCruz Azul have won 9 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Philadelphia Union 1-0 and lost to Atlante FC 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 11D 3L from the last 33 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Puebla have won 3 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Puebla 5-2 and lost to Cruz Azul 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 5D 13L from the last 24 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCruz Azul4-1-3-2Confirmed
Puebla4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersCruz Azul
No reported absences
Puebla
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Cruz Azul have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Puebla 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Cruz Azul have generated 1.61 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 58% of them. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Cruz Azul player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
