Monterrey vs Santos Laguna Prediction, Tips & Odds
Monterrey vs Santos Laguna
Match Preview
The model favours Monterrey to win against Santos Laguna, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Monterrey's recent form shows a mixed performance with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Despite this inconsistent form, they have the advantage of playing at home, where they typically perform better. On the other hand, Santos Laguna has shown a stronger recent performance with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. However, their recent form may not be enough to overcome Monterrey's home advantage. Santos Laguna will need to improve their away performance to secure a positive result in this fixture. The model output suggests a win probability favouring Monterrey, but it’s important to note that inconsistency in form could lead to an unexpected result. Given the competitive nature of Liga MX, any lapse in concentration could sway the match in Santos Laguna's favour. The full methodology is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Monterrey have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Monterrey win as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Monterrey are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Monterrey vs Santos Laguna| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.55 | 4.35 | 5.10 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.48 | 2.45 | |
| 1.53 | 4.30 | 5.20 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.58 | 4.44 | 5.37 | 1.48 | 2.72 | — | — | |
| 1.48 | 4.33 | 4.94 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 3.90 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.45 | |
| 1.57 | 4.50 | 5.25 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.55 | 4.30 | 5.12 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 1.50 | 2.42 | |
| 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.40 | 1.40 | 2.70 | 1.48 | 2.35 | |
| 1.53 | 3.70 | 4.75 | 1.44 | 2.40 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 1.60 | 4.65 | 5.50 | 1.47 | 2.80 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
Superbet | 1.53 | 4.45 | 5.15 | 1.43 | 2.67 | 1.53 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.40 | 5.25 | 1.43 | 2.56 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Monterrey leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Monterrey and Santos Laguna, Monterrey has won 6 times, Santos Laguna has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a relatively strong advantage for Monterrey, with several decisive victories, including three matches won by a margin of two goals or more. However, Santos Laguna has also secured some notable wins, including a significant 3-0 victory in April 2026. The matches have shown a mix of both tight contests and wider scorelines, with the most recent draw occurring in May 2023.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 9 | WWLW |
| 2 |  Atlas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | WLWW |
| 3 |  Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 |  Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | DWLW |
| 5 |  Club Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | DWWL |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 1 | LLDL |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMonterrey have won 5 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Monterrey 1-2 and beat Monterrey 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 11L from the last 25 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Santos Laguna have won 4 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include beat Santos Laguna 0-2 and lost to Chicago Fire 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 3D 17L from the last 26 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMonterrey
No reported absences
Santos Laguna
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Monterrey have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Santos Laguna 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Monterrey have generated 1.33 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Monterrey player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
