Coritiba vs Palmeiras Prediction, Tips & Odds
Coritiba vs Palmeiras
Match Preview
The model favours Palmeiras to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting at the top of the Serie A table, Palmeiras boasts an impressive record with 12 wins out of 18 matches, contributing to a total of 41 points. Their strong goal difference of +17, with only 13 goals conceded, highlights their defensive strength, which is crucial as they aim to maintain their lead in the standings. Coritiba, on the other hand, finds themselves in a respectable 7th place with 26 points from 18 matches. Their season has been a mixed bag, with a goal difference of 0, reflecting their inability to consistently convert chances into goals. Although they have shown competitive form recently, with two wins in their last five matches, their overall performance suggests they may struggle against a top-tier opponent like Palmeiras. The model indicates a win probability of 48.2% for Palmeiras, alongside a 23.5% chance for Coritiba and a 28.3% likelihood of a draw. However, a potential caveat for Palmeiras is their recent form, which includes a loss in their last five matches. Such fluctuations can sometimes lead to unexpected results. The full method behind this prediction, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilises an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 32% of matches. Palmeiras average 1.8 goals per game.
Coritiba manage games at home, conceding just 1.24 goals per match. Palmeiras score 1.81 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Palmeiras have been the stronger side, winning 71% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Palmeiras are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Coritiba vs Palmeiras| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.94 | 3.30 | 1.94 | 2.10 | 1.71 | 1.87 | 1.81 | |
| 4.00 | 3.25 | 1.91 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 4.06 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 2.14 | 1.74 | 1.87 | 1.83 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Palmeiras leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Coritiba and Palmeiras, Coritiba has won 3 times, there has been 1 draw, and Palmeiras has won 6 times. The scorelines indicate a tendency towards Palmeiras, with several matches resulting in decisive victories, including a 4-0 win and a 3-1 win. Coritiba's victories have generally been narrower, with their last win against Palmeiras occurring in October 2020. This suggests a competitive edge for Palmeiras, particularly in recent encounters, where they have shown the ability to secure comfortable wins.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 34 | WLDWD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 31 | DLWDL |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 30 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  RB Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 29 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 26 | WLDLD |
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 26 | LWWDL |
| 18 |  Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 18 | WLWDW |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 16 | LWLDW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | -16 | 9 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCoritiba have won 4 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Coritiba 3-2 and lost to Coritiba 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 9D 7L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Palmeiras have won 9 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include beat Flamengo 0-3 and beat Jacuipense 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 7D 2L from the last 31 games (71% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCoritiba
No reported absences
Palmeiras
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Coritiba have averaged 3.2 corners per match at home; Palmeiras 6.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Palmeiras have generated 1.47 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 71% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Palmeiras player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
