Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction, Tips & Odds
Mirassol vs Gremio
Match Preview
The model favours Mirassol to win with a projected scoreline of 1-0. Currently positioned 19th in the Serie A standings, Mirassol has struggled this season, managing only four victories across 17 matches. Their goal difference of -6 indicates a defensive vulnerability, but recent form shows a slight uptick with two wins in their last five matches, suggesting they may be finding some momentum. Gremio sits a few spots higher at 16th, having played one more match than Mirassol. With five wins to their name, Gremio has also faced challenges, particularly in their defensive setup, as indicated by their goal difference of -3. Their recent form, which includes two wins but also two losses in the last five matches, reflects inconsistency that could be problematic in this fixture. According to the model, Mirassol has a 41.1% chance of winning, while Gremio's chances stand at 30.0%. The potential for over 2.5 goals is noted at 42.9%, and both teams to score has a probability of 48.9%. One caveat is that Mirassol's defensive issues could be exploited by Gremio if they can capitalize on their chances. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 20% of matches. Gremio average 1.4 goals per game.
Mirassol manage games at home, conceding just 1.13 goals per match. Gremio score 1.35 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.7% probability.
Mirassol have been the stronger side, winning 33% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Mirassol clean sheets, in line with their 20% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Mirassol are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Mirassol vs Gremio| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.96 | 3.30 | 3.85 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.93 | 3.36 | 3.90 | 2.08 | 1.72 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| 1.96 | 3.42 | 4.03 | 2.11 | 1.76 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.06 | 3.46 | 2.19 | 1.68 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.80 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.99 | 3.46 | 4.01 | 2.12 | 1.75 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.93 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.79 | |
| 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.20 | 1.70 | 1.93 | 1.82 |
Superbet | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.17 | 1.70 | 1.92 | 1.82 |
BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.30 | 3.90 | 2.02 | 1.68 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Mirassol leads 3-0)The head-to-head record between Mirassol and Gremio stands at three wins for Mirassol and no wins or draws for Gremio. The scorelines indicate that Mirassol has consistently outperformed Gremio, with victories of 1-0, 4-1, and 3-2, reflecting both narrow and more decisive wins. Gremio has struggled to score against Mirassol, having failed to secure a single point in their last three encounters. This trend suggests a clear dominance by Mirassol in their recent matchups.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 34 | WLDWD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 31 | DLWDL |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 30 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  RB Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 29 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 26 | WLDLD |
| 16 | Gremio | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 21 | LWDLD |
| 18 |  Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 18 | WLWDW |
| 19 | Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 16 | LWLDW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | -16 | 9 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMirassol have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Mirassol 1-0 and beat Mirassol 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 13L from the last 30 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Gremio have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Cascavel 1-2 and drew with Bahia 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 12D 8L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
4 playersMirassol3
Gremio1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Mirassol have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Gremio 3.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Mirassol have generated 0.97 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 33% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Mirassol player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
