Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc
Match Preview
The model favours Bahia to win against Chapecoense-sc, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Bahia currently sits in 6th place in the Serie A standings, showcasing a solid season overall with 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, accumulating 26 points. Their goal difference of +2 indicates a balanced attack and defense, and they have managed to score 25 goals while conceding 23. Recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, indicating they are competitive but still seeking consistency. On the other hand, Chapecoense-sc is struggling significantly this season, positioned at the bottom of the table in 20th place. They have only managed one win, along with six draws and ten losses, resulting in just 9 points. Their goal difference of -16 underscores their defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 33 goals while only scoring 17. Their recent form mirrors their season struggles, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, suggesting they are fighting hard but lack the results to show for it. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 70% for Bahia, with the potential for a score of 2-0. However, an honest caveat is that if Bahia underestimates their opponents, it could lead to a closer match than anticipated. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
Bahia have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Bahia win as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Bahia clean sheets, in line with their 15% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Bahia are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.45 | 4.60 | 6.20 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.41 | 4.65 | 6.75 | 1.52 | 2.25 | 1.72 | 1.98 | |
| 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.44 | 4.92 | 6.92 | 1.58 | 2.44 | — | — | |
| 1.39 | 4.21 | 5.80 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.42 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.45 | 4.78 | 6.94 | 1.61 | 2.38 | 1.72 | 2.01 | |
| 1.41 | 4.60 | 7.00 | 1.57 | 2.33 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 4.90 | 6.50 | 1.60 | 2.40 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 1.46 | 4.80 | 6.20 | 1.58 | 2.40 | 1.74 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.80 | 7.00 | 1.56 | 2.23 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Bahia and Chapecoense-sc stands at 3 wins for Bahia, 4 draws, and 3 wins for Chapecoense-sc over the last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry with no clear dominance from either side. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight encounters and a few decisive victories, with Bahia winning by 3-0 in one instance, while Chapecoense-sc achieved a notable 3-1 win. Draws have been frequent, occurring in 40% of the matches, and both teams have demonstrated the ability to secure narrow victories, highlighting the competitive nature of this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 34 | WLDWD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 31 | DLWDL |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 30 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  RB Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 29 | WWWLW |
| 6 | Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 26 | WLDLD |
| 18 |  Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 18 | WLWDW |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 16 | LWLDW |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | -16 | 9 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBahia have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Bahia 4-1 and beat Bahia 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 9L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chapecoense-sc have won 4 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include beat Chapecoense-sc 1-2 and lost to Avai 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 9D 15L from the last 35 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersBahia3
Chapecoense-sc3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Bahia have averaged 6.7 corners per match at home; Chapecoense-sc 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bahia have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bahia player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
