Flora Tallinn vs Nõmme United Prediction, Tips & Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Nõmme United
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win against Nõmme United, with a projected scoreline of 3-1. Flora Tallinn currently sits in second place in the Meistriliiga, boasting a strong record of 12 wins from 18 matches. Their goal difference of +19 highlights their solid defensive capabilities, having conceded only 19 goals this season. With three wins in their last five matches, Flora is in decent form, indicating they are well-positioned to maintain pressure on the league leaders. In contrast, Nõmme United finds themselves in seventh place, struggling with a record of six wins and eleven losses out of 18 matches. With a goal difference of -9, they have conceded significantly more goals than they have scored, which reflects their defensive vulnerabilities. Nõmme's recent form, with only two wins in their last five matches, suggests they are struggling to find consistency and form. The model assigns a strong win probability to Flora Tallinn, reflecting their positional advantage and overall season performance. However, a potential caveat is that if Nõmme United can exploit any defensive lapses from Flora, they could pose a threat. The full method behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that considers expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.3% probability.
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Flora Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 12.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Flora Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Nõmme United| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.30 | 5.30 | 6.55 | 1.26 | 3.20 | 1.56 | 2.21 | |
| 1.22 | 6.00 | 8.00 | 1.25 | 3.80 | — | — | |
| 1.28 | 5.25 | 7.00 | 1.30 | 3.40 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.31 | 5.30 | 6.77 | 1.26 | 3.20 | 1.56 | 2.25 | |
| 1.25 | 5.75 | 8.50 | 1.23 | 3.45 | 1.50 | 2.32 | |
Betano | 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.00 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.29 | 5.50 | 7.20 | 1.24 | 3.30 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Flora Tallinn leads 6-0)In the last seven matches between Flora Tallinn and Nõmme United, Flora Tallinn has won six times, with one match ending in a draw, while Nõmme United has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a largely one-sided affair, with Flora Tallinn achieving several convincing wins, including two 4-0 results and a 3-1 victory. The only draw occurred in June 2024, and Nõmme United's last win against Flora Tallinn dates back further, highlighting a significant dominance by Flora Tallinn in this matchup.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 16 | 33 | 46 | WLDWW |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 36 | WWLWL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 34 | WDDLD |
| 4 |  Paide | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 32 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 26 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  Vaprus | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 23 | LWLDW |
| 7 | Nõmme United | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 19 | LWLWL |
| 8 |  Laagri | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 19 | LLLLW |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 17 | LLDWD |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 18 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 43 | -31 | 10 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFlora Tallinn have won 10 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Flora Tallinn 2-3 and lost to Flora Tallinn 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 2D 9L from the last 31 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Nõmme United have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Laagri 1-3 and beat Trans Narva 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 2D 14L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFlora Tallinn
No reported absences
Nõmme United
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Flora Tallinn average 2.1 goals per match at home; Nõmme United 2.2 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 65% of their matches and averaging 2.1 goals per game. Flora Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.