Trans Narva vs Vaprus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Trans Narva vs Vaprus
Match Preview
The model favours Vaprus to win against Trans Narva, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Vaprus currently occupies sixth place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 23 points from 18 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid attack, scoring 22 goals, although they have conceded 34. With seven wins to their name, Vaprus has shown they can secure results, particularly in recent matches where they have recorded two wins in their last five outings. In contrast, Trans Narva sits at the bottom of the table in tenth place, with only 10 points from 18 matches. Their season has been challenging, reflected in their goal difference of -31, having scored just 12 goals while conceding 43. Their recent form of one win, one draw, and three losses indicates ongoing struggles, and they will need to significantly improve their performance to turn their season around. According to the model, Vaprus has a higher probability of winning this match, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a potential caveat could be that Trans Narva, despite their poor form, may capitalize on any defensive lapses from Vaprus. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.5% probability.
Vaprus have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Vaprus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Trans Narva vs Vaprus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.41 | 3.42 | 2.48 | 1.68 | 2.06 | 1.55 | 2.23 | |
| 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.38 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.41 | 3.42 | 2.48 | 1.68 | 2.06 | 1.55 | 2.27 | |
| 2.43 | 3.35 | 2.60 | 1.70 | 1.98 | 1.55 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 2.42 | 3.35 | 2.50 | 1.65 | 1.98 | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Trans Narva leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Trans Narva and Vaprus, Trans Narva has won 5 times, Vaprus has won once, and there have been 4 draws. This record indicates a strong advantage for Trans Narva, particularly evident in their scoring, as they have secured several narrow wins, including a 4-2 victory and multiple 2-1 results. The matches have generally been competitive, with several draws and low-scoring outcomes, but Vaprus's only win came in 2026, highlighting a significant gap in recent performances.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 16 | 33 | 46 | WLDWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 36 | WWLWL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 34 | WDDLD |
| 4 |  Paide | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 32 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 26 | WWWDL |
| 6 | Vaprus | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 23 | LWLDW |
| 8 |  Laagri | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 19 | LLLLW |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 17 | LLDWD |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 18 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 43 | -31 | 10 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTrans Narva have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 1-3 and lost to Nõmme United 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 5D 18L from the last 29 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Vaprus have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Vaprus 3-1 and drew with Tammeka 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 3D 15L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTrans Narva
No reported absences
Vaprus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Trans Narva average 1.3 goals per match at home; Vaprus 1.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Vaprus have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 36% of their matches and averaging 1.5 goals per game. Vaprus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.