Laagri vs Paide Prediction, Tips & Odds
Laagri vs Paide
Match Preview
The model favours Paide to win this match, predicting a scoreline of 2-0 against Laagri. Paide currently sits in fourth place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 32 points from 19 matches with a record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses. Their goal difference of +7 indicates a solid attacking performance, having scored 30 goals while conceding 23. The team is in good form, having gone unbeaten in their last five matches, which includes three wins and two draws. On the other hand, Laagri is positioned eighth in the league, with only 19 points from 18 matches (6 wins, 1 draw, and 11 losses). Their goal difference of -10 highlights defensive vulnerabilities, having scored 22 goals but conceded 32. Laagri's recent form has been concerning, with just one win in their last five matches, which suggests struggles to find consistency and form as the season progresses. The model gives Paide a high win probability, reflecting their strong season performance compared to Laagri. However, one caveat to consider is that Laagri, despite their struggles, could potentially capitalize on any defensive lapses from Paide. For a detailed understanding of the prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
Paide have been the stronger side, winning 49% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Paide are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Laagri vs Paide| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.00 | 3.55 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| 3.02 | 3.64 | 1.98 | 1.53 | 2.21 | 1.49 | 2.38 | |
| 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.00 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.03 | 1.59 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 3.06 | 3.23 | 1.95 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.08 | 3.64 | 2.00 | 1.53 | 2.21 | 1.49 | 2.42 | |
| 3.25 | 3.50 | 1.95 | 1.53 | 2.23 | 1.45 | 2.43 | |
Betano | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.12 | — | — |
Superbet | 3.15 | 3.55 | 2.05 | 1.58 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.25 | 1.90 | 1.47 | 1.92 | 1.40 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Paide leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Laagri and Paide, Paide has won 7 times, Laagri has secured 1 victory, and there have been 2 draws. This record indicates a dominant performance by Paide, particularly evident in their ability to win by a margin, as they have achieved four clean-sheet victories. Laagri's lone win came with a significant 3-0 scoreline, but overall, the results have leaned heavily in favor of Paide, who have not lost to Laagri in their last six encounters. The most recent match saw Paide winning decisively with a 4-0 scoreline, emphasizing their ongoing superiority in this rivalry.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 21 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 50 | WDWLD |
| 2 |  Kalju Nomme | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 41 | WWDWD |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 39 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Paide | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 35 | WLWDW |
| 5 |  Vaprus | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 27 | DLWLW |
| 6 |  Tammeka | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 26 | LLWWW |
| 8 | Laagri | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 21 | WLDLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 50 | -33 | 16 | LWWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLaagri have won 10 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Laagri 8-0 and beat Laagri 5-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 14L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Paide have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Zira 1-1 and lost to Laagri 5-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 9D 10L from the last 37 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLaagri
No reported absences
Paide
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Laagri average 1.9 goals per match at home; Paide 1.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Paide have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 49% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. They put 2.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Paide player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.