FC Levadia Tallinn vs Caernarfon Town Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Caernarfon Town
Match Preview
The model favours FC Levadia Tallinn to win against Caernarfon Town, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. FC Levadia Tallinn comes into this match with a solid form, having secured three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This performance indicates a competitive edge, especially as they prepare to host the match at A. Le Coq Arena, a factor that can often influence results. On the other hand, Caernarfon Town has been in impressive form as well, winning four of their last five matches, with only one loss. This strong run suggests they are capable of challenging FC Levadia Tallinn, but they will need to maintain that momentum away from home. Their recent success may bolster their confidence, but they will face a tough test against a team that has shown resilience in recent weeks. The model output indicates a win probability favouring FC Levadia Tallinn, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to note is the likelihood of at least two goals being scored in the match. However, the caveat here is that if Caernarfon Town can replicate their recent form and exploit any defensive weaknesses, they could disrupt the expected outcome. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.6% probability.
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 66% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 FC Levadia Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 17.6% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature FC Levadia Tallinn clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. FC Levadia Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Caernarfon Town| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.17 | 5.60 | 16.00 | 1.50 | 2.45 | 2.15 | 1.57 | |
| 1.14 | 7.00 | 16.50 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 2.26 | 1.55 | |
| 1.15 | 6.50 | 12.00 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 2.15 | 1.67 | |
| 1.13 | 6.88 | 14.83 | 1.46 | 2.48 | — | — | |
| 1.19 | 5.03 | 7.72 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.18 | 6.00 | 15.00 | — | — | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 1.17 | 6.50 | 11.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.25 | 1.57 | |
| 1.14 | 7.00 | 16.50 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 2.26 | 1.57 | |
| 1.23 | 5.80 | 11.00 | 1.49 | 2.40 | 1.98 | 1.71 | |
Betano | 1.19 | 6.20 | 12.50 | 1.52 | 2.45 | 2.22 | 1.60 |
Superbet | 1.17 | 6.70 | 12.00 | 1.50 | 2.42 | 2.25 | 1.57 |
BetVictor | 1.17 | 6.50 | 15.00 | 1.49 | 2.39 | 2.15 | 1.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (FC Levadia Tallinn leads 1-0)In their only historical meeting, FC Levadia Tallinn has won once against Caernarfon Town, with no draws or wins for the latter. The match ended with a scoreline of 3-0 in favor of FC Levadia Tallinn, indicating a decisive victory. This result suggests a one-sided contest, as Caernarfon Town failed to score. Given that this was their sole encounter, it provides limited insight into the competitiveness of future matchups, but the heavy defeat for Caernarfon Town highlights their struggles against FC Levadia Tallinn historically.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Levadia Tallinn have won 7 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 1-2 and drew with FC Levadia Tallinn 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 6D 4L from the last 29 games (66% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Caernarfon Town have won 3 of their last 5 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Glentoran 1-2 and beat Colwyn Bay 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 0D 5L from the last 11 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Levadia Tallinn
No reported absences
Caernarfon Town
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Lee has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by R. Lee to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
FC Levadia Tallinn average 2.5 goals per match at home; Caernarfon Town 1.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 66% of their matches and averaging 2.5 goals per game. FC Levadia Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
