Kuressaare vs Kalju Nomme Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kuressaare vs Kalju Nomme
Match Preview
The model favours Kalju Nomme to win against Kuressaare, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Currently sitting in third place, Kalju Nomme has shown strong form this season with 10 wins out of 19 matches, contributing to a goal difference of +17. Their ability to score, with 33 goals this season, highlights their attacking prowess, while conceding only 16 goals indicates a solid defensive setup. In contrast, Kuressaare finds themselves in ninth position, struggling with a record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses. Their goal difference of -13 reflects ongoing challenges, as they have managed just 17 goals while conceding 30. Recent form shows only one win in their last five matches, which may further hinder their confidence heading into this fixture. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 65% for Kalju Nomme, along with their projected score of 2-0. However, Kuressaare could pull off an upset if they manage to exploit any defensive lapses from Kalju. It’s important to consider that the full method, which includes expected goals and actual results across the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has produced this analysis to provide an informed perspective on the match.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.7% probability.
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Kalju Nomme are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kuressaare vs Kalju Nomme| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.00 | 3.70 | 1.73 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.55 | 2.20 | |
| 4.25 | 3.74 | 1.65 | 1.61 | 2.17 | 1.59 | 2.15 | |
| 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.67 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 4.34 | 3.95 | 1.72 | 1.65 | 2.26 | — | — | |
| 4.41 | 3.67 | 1.55 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.70 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
| 3.80 | 3.70 | 1.70 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 4.31 | 3.74 | 1.67 | 1.61 | 2.17 | 1.59 | 2.19 | |
| 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.57 | 1.63 | 2.06 | 1.66 | 2.02 | |
Betano | 4.35 | 3.60 | 1.65 | 1.57 | 2.10 | — | — |
Superbet | 4.35 | 3.80 | 1.66 | 1.59 | 2.17 | 1.63 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.30 | 1.62 | 1.50 | 1.88 | 1.47 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Kalju Nomme leads 9-0)In the last 10 matches between Kuressaare and Kalju Nomme, Kalju Nomme has won 9 times, while Kuressaare has yet to secure a victory, with 0 draws recorded. This record indicates a clear dominance by Kalju Nomme, as evidenced by several heavy scorelines, including two 4-0 and one 6-0 victories. The matches have generally been one-sided, with Kuressaare struggling to find the net; their only goal in these encounters came in a 1-2 loss. The lack of draws and the significant margin of defeat suggest that Kuressaare has not been competitive in these fixtures.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 21 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 50 | WDWLD |
| 2 | Kalju Nomme | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 41 | WWDWD |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 39 | WLWWL |
| 4 |  Paide | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 35 | WLWDW |
| 5 |  Vaprus | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 27 | DLWLW |
| 6 |  Tammeka | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 26 | LLWWW |
| 8 |  Laagri | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 21 | WLDLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 50 | -33 | 16 | LWWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKuressaare have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Laagri 3-2 and beat Welco X 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 16L from the last 31 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Kalju Nomme have won 10 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Kalju Nomme 0-2 and lost to Shelbourne 5-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 8L from the last 34 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKuressaare
No reported absences
Kalju Nomme
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Kuressaare average 1.3 goals per match at home; Kalju Nomme 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 50% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Kalju Nomme player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
