Fluminense vs RB Bragantino Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino
Match Preview
The model favours Fluminense to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in third place in the Serie A standings, Fluminense has had a solid season so far, accumulating 31 points from 18 matches. Their recent form reflects this, with three wins, one draw, and just one loss in their last five games. The team's goal difference of +5, bolstered by scoring 28 goals while conceding 23, indicates a competitive edge in attack and defence. On the other hand, RB Bragantino is in fifth place with 29 points, having also played 18 matches. They have had a commendable run, securing four wins and one draw in their last five fixtures, which has contributed to their overall goal difference of +6. However, with seven losses this season compared to Fluminense's five, they face a tougher challenge in maintaining consistency against high-ranking opponents. According to the model, Fluminense has a win probability of 54.8%, while RB Bragantino's chances stand at 19.0%. The projected score of 2-1 suggests a competitive match, but one caveat is Fluminense's vulnerability to defensive lapses, which could allow Bragantino to exploit any weaknesses. For a full understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Fluminense manage games at home, conceding just 1.00 goals per match. RB Bragantino score 1.47 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
Fluminense have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Fluminense clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Fluminense are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.90 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.10 | 2.05 | 1.74 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 1.91 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 1.94 | 3.33 | 4.25 | 2.09 | 1.77 | — | — | |
| 1.92 | 3.06 | 3.55 | 2.12 | 1.73 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.96 | 3.39 | 4.22 | 2.09 | 1.78 | 1.85 | 1.86 | |
| 1.93 | 3.35 | 4.10 | 2.12 | 1.72 | 1.85 | 1.84 | |
| 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.90 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 2.02 | 3.50 | 4.10 | 2.12 | 1.75 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
Superbet | 1.97 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 2.10 | 1.74 | 1.90 | 1.85 |
BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Fluminense leads 6-2)In the last ten matches between Fluminense and RB Bragantino, Fluminense has won 6 times, drawn 2, and RB Bragantino has secured 2 victories. This record indicates a strong advantage for Fluminense, particularly in terms of consistency, as they have only lost twice. The scorelines reveal that most matches have been tightly contested, with several games ending in narrow victories. Notably, only one match ended with a significant margin, a 4-2 win for RB Bragantino. The last win for RB Bragantino came in October 2023, suggesting that Fluminense has often had the upper hand in recent encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 34 | WLDWD |
| 3 | Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 31 | DLWDL |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 30 | WWDLD |
| 5 | RB Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 29 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 26 | WLDLD |
| 18 |  Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 18 | WLWDW |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 16 | LWLDW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | -16 | 9 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFluminense have won 13 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Bahia 2-0 and beat Nova Iguaçu 6-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 7L from the last 33 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
RB Bragantino have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Vasco DA Gama 0-3 and drew with River Plate 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 11L from the last 32 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersFluminense1
RB Bragantino7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Fluminense have averaged 3.6 corners per match at home; RB Bragantino 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fluminense have generated 1.01 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fluminense player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
