Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo
Match Preview
The model favours Flamengo to win against Chapecoense-sc, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Flamengo currently sits in second place in the Serie A standings, boasting a strong record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses from 17 matches. They have scored 31 goals while conceding only 16, resulting in a goal difference of +15. Their solid form, with three wins in their last five matches, underscores their capability to maintain pressure on the league leaders. Conversely, Chapecoense-sc finds itself at the bottom of the table in 20th place, having managed just 1 win, 6 draws, and 10 losses. With only 9 points from 17 matches, they have struggled offensively, scoring a mere 17 goals while conceding 33, leading to a goal difference of -16. Their recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses, which may suggest a slight improvement, but they still face significant challenges against a top contender like Flamengo. The model gives Flamengo a 62.8% win probability, with a projected score of 2-0. A potential caveat is that if Chapecoense-sc can leverage their home advantage effectively, they might disrupt Flamengo's rhythm. For a deeper understanding of how these predictions are formulated, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results over the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.9% probability.
Flamengo have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Flamengo win as the most likely scoreline at 14.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Flamengo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.47 | 1.79 | 1.99 | 1.88 | 1.80 | |
| 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 6.69 | 4.32 | 1.51 | 1.82 | 2.03 | 1.88 | 1.82 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flamengo leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Chapecoense-SC and Flamengo, Flamengo has won 7 times, with Chapecoense-SC securing just 1 victory and 2 matches ending in a draw. This record indicates a clear dominance by Flamengo, especially highlighted by their ability to achieve several narrow wins such as 1-0 and 2-1, alongside a significant 5-1 victory. Chapecoense-SC's last win against Flamengo dates back to May 2018, suggesting a challenging trend for them in this matchup. The scorelines reveal a mix of competitive and one-sided encounters, with Flamengos' stronger performances likely influencing the overall results.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 34 | WLDWD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 31 | DLWDL |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 30 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  RB Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 29 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 26 | WLDLD |
| 18 |  Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 18 | WLWDW |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 16 | LWLDW |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | -16 | 9 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChapecoense-sc have won 7 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Chapecoense-sc 3-0 and drew with Chapecoense-sc 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 9D 15L from the last 35 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Flamengo have won 10 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Flamengo 1-2 and drew with Atletico Paranaense 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 6D 5L from the last 33 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersChapecoense-sc
No reported absences
Flamengo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Chapecoense-sc have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Flamengo 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Flamengo have generated 1.70 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flamengo player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
