Gremio vs Sao Paulo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Gremio vs Sao Paulo
Match Preview
The model favours Sao Paulo to win against Gremio, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sao Paulo currently sits in 12th place in Serie A with 25 points from 19 matches. Their season has been marked by a mixed bag of results, but their goal difference of +2 indicates a slightly better defensive record compared to Gremio. With 24 goals scored, they have shown a capacity to find the back of the net more consistently, and their recent form includes a win and two draws in the last five matches. Gremio, on the other hand, is struggling in 16th place with just 21 points. Their form has been inconsistent, with two wins, three losses, and no draws in their last five matches. This lack of stability has contributed to their negative goal difference of -4, suggesting that they have not only struggled to score but have also been vulnerable defensively. Gremio's recent performances indicate that they are in need of a turnaround to climb out of the relegation zone. The model gives Sao Paulo a win probability of around 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to watch is the over/under on total goals scored. However, Gremio could pose a challenge if they manage to find their form and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Sao Paulo. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 34% of matches. Sao Paulo average 1.3 goals per game.
Gremio manage games at home, conceding just 1.00 goals per match. Sao Paulo score 1.26 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.7% probability.
Gremio have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Gremio are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Gremio vs Sao Paulo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.15 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| 2.30 | 3.12 | 3.15 | 2.18 | 1.66 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 2.39 | 3.19 | 3.32 | 2.27 | 1.67 | — | — | |
| 2.28 | 3.04 | 2.76 | 2.12 | 1.73 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.37 | 3.22 | 3.24 | 2.22 | 1.69 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.40 | 3.15 | 2.95 | 2.10 | 1.72 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
| 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 2.40 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 2.20 | 1.72 | 1.83 | 1.90 |
Superbet | 2.35 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.13 | 2.10 | 1.63 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sao Paulo leads 6-4)In the last 10 matches between Gremio and Sao Paulo, Gremio has won 4 times, while Sao Paulo has secured 6 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, though Sao Paulo has had the upper hand, winning by margins that suggest a mix of close contests and more decisive results, such as their recent 3-0 win. Gremio's victories have often been tight, with several matches decided by a single goal. The absence of draws highlights the tendency for one team to prevail on the day, making the encounters quite decisive in nature.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 22 | 48 | DWLWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 42 | WDDWW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 40 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 35 | DDDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 | WWLWD |
| 6 |  Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 33 | DDDDW |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 26 | LDLLD |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 25 | WDLLW |
| 19 |  Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 22 | DLWLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 10 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGremio have won 13 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sao Paulo 2-1 and beat Mirassol 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 14D 11L from the last 41 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sao Paulo have won 5 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sao Paulo 2-1 and drew with Flamengo 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 11L from the last 34 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedGremio4-2-3-1Confirmed
Sao Paulo4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersGremio3
Sao Paulo4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Gremio have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Sao Paulo 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Gremio have generated 1.25 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Gremio player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
