Vitoria vs Palmeiras Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vitoria vs Palmeiras
Match Preview
The model favours Palmeiras to win the match against Vitoria, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Palmeiras currently sits at the top of the Serie A standings, boasting an impressive record of 12 wins, 5 draws, and just 1 loss from 18 matches. They have scored 30 goals while conceding only 13, resulting in a goal difference of +17. Their recent form also reflects their dominance, as they have secured three wins in their last five matches. On the other hand, Vitoria is positioned in 13th place with 22 points from 17 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, along with a goal difference of -4, highlights their struggles this season. While they have managed to secure four victories in their last five matches, their overall performance suggests they may find it challenging to compete against a top-tier team like Palmeiras. The model indicates that Palmeiras has a strong win probability for this fixture, given their overall performance and current form. However, a caveat is that if Vitoria can leverage their recent momentum and play at home, they could pose a challenge. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilises an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Vitoria manage games at home, conceding just 1.31 goals per match. Palmeiras score 1.84 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.4% probability.
Palmeiras have been the stronger side, winning 72% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Palmeiras are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vitoria vs Palmeiras| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.10 | 2.96 | 2.05 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 3.88 | 3.06 | 2.05 | 2.26 | 1.62 | 1.94 | 1.75 | |
| 3.90 | 3.10 | 2.00 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 4.05 | 3.20 | 2.11 | 2.29 | 1.63 | — | — | |
| 3.61 | 3.14 | 1.95 | 2.13 | 1.74 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 4.00 | 3.10 | 2.05 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 3.99 | 3.15 | 2.11 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 1.94 | 1.77 | |
| 4.00 | 3.20 | 1.98 | 2.18 | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 4.25 | 3.20 | 2.10 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
Superbet | 4.00 | 3.20 | 2.05 | 2.25 | 1.65 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
BetVictor | 3.75 | 3.25 | 2.05 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Palmeiras leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Vitoria and Palmeiras, Palmeiras has won 6 times, Vitoria has won 2 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Palmeiras to dominate, with three matches resulting in heavy wins for them, including a notable 5-1 victory. While Vitoria has managed to secure a couple of wins, including a 2-0 triumph, the overall results suggest a one-sided pattern, particularly in recent encounters where Palmeiras has been more successful. The last time Vitoria won against Palmeiras was in July 2024, highlighting a gap in their recent competitiveness.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 37 | WWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 36 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 32 | DDLWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 31 | DDWWL |
| 6 |  RB Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 30 | DWWWL |
| 11 | Vitoria | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 26 | DWLWL |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 20 | DWLWL |
| 19 |  Remo | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 18 | LWLWD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVitoria have won 14 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Vitoria 1-0 and beat Vitoria 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 8D 10L from the last 36 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Palmeiras have won 10 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include beat Palmeiras 1-3 and beat Flamengo 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 7D 2L from the last 32 games (72% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedVitoria5-4-1Confirmed
Palmeiras3-4-1-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersVitoria
No reported absences
Palmeiras
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Vitoria have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Palmeiras 6.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Palmeiras have generated 1.24 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 72% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Palmeiras player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
