Benfica vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Tips & Odds
Benfica vs Heart Of Midlothian
Match Preview
The model favours Benfica to win against Heart Of Midlothian, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Benfica has had a mixed run of form recently, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. While this shows they have the capacity to secure victories, consistency has been an issue. Key to their performance will be their ability to convert chances, which will be vital in this knockout fixture. Heart Of Midlothian comes into this match with a similar record, having also won three of their last five games. Their recent form reflects a team that is gaining momentum, particularly after two consecutive wins. They will look to leverage this positive trajectory to challenge Benfica and potentially exploit any defensive lapses. The model provides a win probability of 60% for Benfica, suggesting they are the more likely side to advance. However, a caveat is that if Benfica's inconsistency continues, it could open the door for Heart Of Midlothian to take advantage. For a detailed breakdown of how these predictions were generated, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
Benfica have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 Benfica win as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. 5 of the top six outcomes feature Benfica clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Benfica are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Benfica vs Heart Of Midlothian| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.10 | 8.80 | 20.00 | 1.25 | 3.70 | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| 1.12 | 10.75 | 20.50 | 1.26 | 3.54 | 2.19 | 1.60 | |
| 1.08 | 10.00 | 20.00 | 1.25 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| 1.10 | 10.60 | 17.32 | 1.29 | 3.46 | — | — | |
| 1.08 | 7.91 | 13.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.10 | 9.00 | 17.00 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 1.10 | 10.00 | 15.00 | 1.25 | 3.75 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 1.12 | 10.70 | 20.00 | 1.26 | 3.54 | 2.19 | 1.62 | |
| 1.10 | 9.00 | 19.00 | 1.27 | 3.30 | 2.02 | 1.67 | |
| 1.10 | 9.00 | 17.00 | 1.25 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
Betano | 1.12 | 8.50 | 18.00 | 1.28 | 3.50 | 2.02 | 1.70 |
Superbet | 1.10 | 10.00 | 20.00 | 1.28 | 3.75 | 2.10 | 1.68 |
BetVictor | 1.07 | 11.00 | 23.00 | 1.22 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.65 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Benfica leads 1-0)Benfica leads the head-to-head record against Heart Of Midlothian with 1 win and no draws or losses. The only match played ended with a decisive score of 6-1 in favor of Benfica, indicating a one-sided contest. This heavy defeat suggests that Benfica has a significant advantage when facing Heart Of Midlothian, which may impact future encounters. The large margin of victory highlights the challenges Heart Of Midlothian faced in that match, and they have not won against Benfica in their historical meetings.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonBenfica have won 11 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Benfica 2-2 and beat Benfica 6-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 4L from the last 27 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Heart Of Midlothian have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Benfica 6-1 and lost to Aberdeen 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 5D 9L from the last 29 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBenfica4-2-3-1Confirmed
Heart Of Midlothian4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersBenfica
No reported absences
Heart Of Midlothian
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Benfica have averaged 8.2 corners per match at home; Heart Of Midlothian 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Benfica have generated 2.79 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 6.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Benfica player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
