Larne vs Saburtalo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Larne vs Saburtalo
Match Preview
The model favours Larne to win against Saburtalo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Larne's form has improved recently, with three wins in their last five matches. This resurgence suggests they are finding their rhythm at a crucial point in the season. Their ability to secure victories, especially in home fixtures, could play a significant role in this matchup. On the other hand, Saburtalo has shown mixed results, managing two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five games. While they have demonstrated resilience by picking up points in draws, their inconsistency may be a concern as they face a confident Larne side. The challenge for Saburtalo will be to convert their performances into a more decisive outcome against a team that is currently in better form. The model assigns a win probability of 60% for Larne, suggesting they are the more likely victors in this encounter. However, one caveat is that if Saburtalo can effectively disrupt Larne's momentum and build on their recent draws, they could pose a threat. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Larne manage games at home, conceding just 1.27 goals per match. Saburtalo score 1.29 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.7% probability.
Larne have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Larne are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Larne vs Saburtalo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.44 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 2.98 | 3.02 | 2.47 | 2.19 | 1.65 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.40 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 3.25 | 3.11 | 2.23 | 2.12 | 1.69 | — | — | |
| 2.67 | 2.91 | 2.31 | 2.14 | 1.65 | — | — | |
| 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.88 | 3.10 | 2.25 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 3.06 | 3.11 | 2.54 | 2.23 | 1.68 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.28 | 1.91 | 1.77 | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.30 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 3.15 | 3.05 | 2.35 | 2.18 | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.88 |
Superbet | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.42 | 2.22 | 1.66 | 1.90 | 1.83 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.13 | 2.45 | 2.11 | 1.62 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Larne and Saburtalo stands at 0 wins for Larne, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Saburtalo. Their only encounter ended in a goalless draw, indicating a tightly contested match with no clear advantage for either side. The absence of goals suggests a low-scoring pattern, with both teams struggling to convert chances into scores. Since there has only been one match played, it is difficult to draw broader conclusions, but the lack of wins for either team may point to a balanced rivalry thus far.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonLarne have won 5 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Larne 0-4 and beat Larne 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 3D 4L from the last 15 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Saburtalo have won 1 of their last 4 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Saburtalo 1-1 and beat Margveti 2006 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 5D 4L from the last 14 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLarne4-3-3Confirmed
Saburtalo4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersLarne
No reported absences
Saburtalo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Larne have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Saburtalo 0.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Larne have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 53% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Larne player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
