Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia
Match Preview
The model favours Maccabi Tel Aviv to win, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Maccabi Tel Aviv has shown strong form recently, securing four wins in their last five matches. This includes a solid home record, which should provide them with an advantage in this crucial fixture. Their attacking play has been particularly effective, suggesting they will be able to create chances against CSKA Sofia. On the other hand, CSKA Sofia remains unbeaten in their last five matches, with two wins and three draws. Their ability to grind out results indicates resilience, but they may struggle to convert draws into wins against a team like Maccabi Tel Aviv. While they have shown defensive solidity, their recent form suggests they might find it challenging to break down a more dynamic attacking side. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Maccabi Tel Aviv and a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, reflecting expectations for a competitive encounter. However, if CSKA Sofia can maintain their defensive discipline and frustrate Maccabi's attack, they could very well upset the prediction. The full method of this analysis is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Maccabi Tel Aviv manage games at home, conceding just 1.14 goals per match. CSKA Sofia score 1.47 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.8% probability.
Maccabi Tel Aviv have been the stronger side, winning 57% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Maccabi Tel Aviv clean sheets, in line with their 36% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Maccabi Tel Aviv are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 1.98 | 3.22 | 3.90 | 2.07 | 1.73 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 1.95 | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.99 | 3.14 | 4.11 | 2.13 | 1.72 | — | — | |
| 1.99 | 3.00 | 3.19 | 2.00 | 1.78 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.00 | 3.80 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.80 | |
| 1.85 | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 2.06 | 3.34 | 4.06 | 2.13 | 1.78 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
| 1.94 | 3.45 | 3.75 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.74 | 1.94 | |
| 1.95 | 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 1.85 | 1.80 | |
Betano | 1.95 | 3.20 | 4.15 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
Superbet | 2.00 | 3.35 | 4.00 | 2.12 | 1.73 | 1.90 | 1.85 |
BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.02 | 1.68 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (CSKA Sofia leads 1-0)In the only recorded match between Maccabi Tel Aviv and CSKA Sofia, CSKA Sofia emerged victorious with a score of 1-0. This narrow win indicates a tightly contested encounter, with neither side managing to score more than once. Maccabi Tel Aviv has not yet secured a win against CSKA Sofia, and the absence of draws in their sole meeting suggests a clear result, albeit in a low-scoring affair.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonMaccabi Tel Aviv have won 4 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Maccabi Tel Aviv 0-3 and beat Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 2D 4L from the last 14 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
CSKA Sofia have won 6 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Septemvri Sofia 0-3 and beat Maccabi Tel Aviv 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 4L from the last 19 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedMaccabi Tel Aviv4-2-3-1Confirmed
CSKA Sofia4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersMaccabi Tel Aviv
No reported absences
CSKA Sofia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Maccabi Tel Aviv average 2.0 goals per match at home; CSKA Sofia 1.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Maccabi Tel Aviv have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 57% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Maccabi Tel Aviv player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
