Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock Prediction, Tips & Odds
Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock
Match Preview
The model favours Avispa Fukuoka to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Mito Hollyhock. Avispa currently sits in 12th place in the league, having played three matches this season. They have recorded one win and two losses, with five goals scored and four conceded, resulting in a positive goal difference of one. Their recent form shows a mixed bag, with two wins in their last five matches, indicating a potential for improvement. On the other hand, Mito Hollyhock is positioned higher at 7th place, having also played three matches but securing only one win, one draw, and one loss. Like Avispa, they have also scored five goals and conceded four, maintaining a goal difference of one. However, their form has been less impressive recently, with just one win and three losses in their last five matches, suggesting they may be struggling to find consistency. The model provides a win probability of around 55% for Avispa Fukuoka, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage indicates a slight edge for Avispa in terms of match betting. A caveat to consider is that both teams have shown vulnerability in defence, which could lead to an unexpected outcome. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results over the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Avispa Fukuoka manage games at home, conceding just 1.69 goals per match. Mito Hollyhock score 1.09 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Avispa Fukuoka have been the stronger side, winning 22% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Avispa Fukuoka clean sheets, in line with their 9% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Avispa Fukuoka are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.78 | 2.11 | 1.70 | 1.87 | 1.81 | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 2.05 | 3.41 | 3.94 | 2.19 | 1.74 | — | — | |
| 2.04 | 3.02 | 3.24 | 2.05 | 1.79 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.20 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.04 | 3.38 | 3.83 | 2.14 | 1.72 | 1.86 | 1.84 | |
| 1.94 | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 1.91 | 1.76 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.02 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Superbet | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.65 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.82 | 1.88 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.07 | 1.65 | 1.87 | 1.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Avispa Fukuoka leads 4-2)The head-to-head record between Avispa Fukuoka and Mito Hollyhock shows 4 wins for Avispa Fukuoka, 4 draws, and 2 wins for Mito Hollyhock over the last 10 matches. This indicates a competitive rivalry, with a notable frequency of draws, accounting for 40% of the encounters. The scorelines suggest a mix of tight contests, with several matches ending in narrow victories, such as 1-0 and 2-0, alongside a more decisive 4-2 win for Mito Hollyhock. The last victory for Mito Hollyhock came in August 2020, highlighting a challenge in securing wins against Avispa Fukuoka in recent matchups.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Vissel Kobe | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Kashima | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 5 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  FC Tokyo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 11 | Mito Hollyhock | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 9 | DWDWD |
| 16 | Avispa Fukuoka | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 18 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DLLDL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonAvispa Fukuoka have won 3 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 10 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Mito Hollyhock 1-1 and lost to Urawa 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 13D 12L from the last 32 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Mito Hollyhock have won 2 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Mito Hollyhock 0-0 and drew with Avispa Fukuoka 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 11D 15L from the last 32 games (19% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAvispa Fukuoka3-4-2-1Confirmed
Mito Hollyhock4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAvispa Fukuoka
No reported absences
Mito Hollyhock
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Avispa Fukuoka have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; Mito Hollyhock 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Avispa Fukuoka have generated 0.55 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 22% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Avispa Fukuoka player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
