Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction, Tips & Odds
Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Match Preview
The model favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Avispa Fukuoka. Sanfrecce Hiroshima currently sits in 5th place in the J1 League standings, having secured 11 points from their six matches. Their season has been characterized by a solid offensive display, scoring 13 goals while conceding only 5, which results in a positive goal difference of 8. This attacking prowess, combined with a recent form of two wins, two draws, and just one loss in their last five matches, highlights their competitive edge heading into this fixture. In contrast, Avispa Fukuoka finds themselves in a precarious position at 16th, having accumulated only 4 points from their six matches. Their record of one win, one draw, and four losses reflects struggles at both ends of the pitch, with 9 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their recent form of three losses and two draws in the last five matches suggests they are struggling to find consistency and confidence, which could be a significant factor in this matchup. The model output indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Although they are favoured to win, one caveat is Avispa Fukuoka's potential to capitalize on home advantage, which could sway the match in their favour if they perform above expectations. For a deeper understanding of how this prediction was made, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, which details our in-house model's analysis based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.65 | 3.82 | 1.67 | 1.76 | 1.99 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.67 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 4.70 | 4.05 | 1.74 | 1.81 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 4.26 | 3.45 | 1.66 | 1.81 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 4.40 | 3.70 | 1.70 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.70 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 4.78 | 3.92 | 1.72 | 1.80 | 2.04 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 4.65 | 3.85 | 1.67 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.98 |
BetVictor | 4.80 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 1.73 | 1.96 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sanfrecce Hiroshima leads 6-2)In the last ten matches between Avispa Fukuoka and Sanfrecce Hiroshima, Sanfrecce Hiroshima leads with 6 wins, while Avispa Fukuoka has 2 wins and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several tight matches; however, Sanfrecce Hiroshima has secured more victories, including three matches by a single goal. Notably, Avispa Fukuoka's last win against Sanfrecce Hiroshima came in April 2026, suggesting a challenging trend for them against this opponent. Overall, while there have been close encounters, Sanfrecce Hiroshima has been the more successful side historically.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Vissel Kobe | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Kashima | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  FC Tokyo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 16 | Avispa Fukuoka | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 18 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DLLDL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonAvispa Fukuoka have won 3 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 10 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Mito Hollyhock 1-1 and lost to Urawa 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 13D 12L from the last 32 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-2 and drew with Gamba Osaka 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 7D 10L from the last 35 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAvispa Fukuoka
No reported absences
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Avispa Fukuoka have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; Sanfrecce Hiroshima 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have generated 1.80 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 51% of them. They put 6.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sanfrecce Hiroshima player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.