Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa Prediction, Tips & Odds
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa
Match Preview
The model favours Başakşehir to win against Kasımpaşa, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. As the second-placed team in the Süper Lig, Başakşehir has made a strong start to the season with one win from their opening match, scoring two goals without conceding any. Their recent form shows they have won three of their last five matches, indicating a solid level of performance as they aim to challenge for the title. On the other hand, Kasımpaşa currently sits in tenth place after one match, which ended in a draw. They have yet to secure a win this season, managing just one goal while also conceding one. Their recent form, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, suggests they are difficult to beat, but they will need to find a way to convert draws into victories if they want to climb the standings. The model gives Başakşehir a strong win probability, reflecting their current form and league position. However, Kasımpaşa's resilience could pose a challenge, especially if they can tighten up defensively. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
Başakşehir have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Başakşehir win as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Başakşehir clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Başakşehir are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.64 | 4.10 | 4.65 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.59 | 4.05 | 5.10 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 1.75 | 1.94 | |
| 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 4.09 | 5.17 | 1.77 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.65 | 4.21 | 5.30 | 1.80 | 2.10 | 1.75 | 1.97 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 4.05 | 5.20 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.00 | 1.70 | 1.99 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Başakşehir leads 9-0)Başakşehir hold the edge in this fixture, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings with 1 draws and 0 Kasımpaşa wins. The record points to a tie Başakşehir have controlled for years, though the draws show Kasımpaşa have at times kept it tight.
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Galatasaray | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | WD |
| 3 |  Samsunspor | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | WD |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 5 |  Alanyaspor | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Gaziantep FK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 7 | Kasımpaşa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 10 | Başakşehir | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | LW |
| 16 |  Kocaelispor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 17 |  Konyaspor | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Erzurumspor FK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBaşakşehir have won 7 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Başakşehir 2-0 and drew with Başakşehir 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 7L from the last 27 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kasımpaşa have won 1 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Kasımpaşa 0-1 and lost to Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 8D 7L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBaşakşehir
No reported absences
Kasımpaşa
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Başakşehir have averaged 5.6 corners per match at home; Kasımpaşa 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Başakşehir have generated 1.90 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 4.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Başakşehir player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
