Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Prediction, Tips & Odds
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
Match Preview
The model favours Osasuna to win this match against Celta Vigo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Osasuna starts the season in a strong position, having finished third in the previous campaign. Their recent form has been promising, with three wins in their last five matches, demonstrating their capability to secure results even against tougher opponents. This momentum could play a crucial role as they aim to carry their success into the new season. Celta Vigo, on the other hand, is looking to build on their recent performances, having achieved two wins and three draws in their last five matches. While they have shown resilience, their lack of recent victories could be a concern as they enter the season. They will need to convert their draws into wins to climb the standings and establish a stronger position early on. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Osasuna, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is that Osasuna is favoured to win by at least one goal. However, if Celta Vigo can capitalize on their home advantage and improve their finishing, they could upset the odds. The full methodology is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Celta Vigo manage games at home, conceding just 1.43 goals per match. Osasuna score 1.35 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Celta Vigo have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Celta Vigo clean sheets, in line with their 23% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Celta Vigo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.90 | 1.85 | |
| 2.04 | 3.50 | 3.90 | 2.13 | 1.73 | 1.87 | 1.83 | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 1.87 | 1.87 | |
| 2.01 | 3.58 | 3.91 | 2.19 | 1.74 | — | — | |
| 1.94 | 3.06 | 3.49 | 2.13 | 1.74 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.75 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 2.07 | 3.56 | 3.96 | 2.20 | 1.78 | 1.87 | 1.85 | |
| 1.96 | 3.45 | 3.90 | 2.06 | 1.75 | 1.84 | 1.88 | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 2.00 | 3.35 | 4.00 | 2.18 | 1.72 | 1.88 | 1.85 |
BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 2.01 | 1.69 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna stands at 4 wins for each team, with 2 draws in their last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with neither side significantly dominating the other. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests and some narrow victories, evidenced by several matches ending with a one-goal difference, such as Celta's 1-0 win and Osasuna's 2-1 victory. The presence of three matches that ended in draws also highlights the competitive nature of these fixtures. Overall, the results suggest a closely matched history, with both teams capable of winning.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | DW |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 4 |  Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | LW |
| 6 |  Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 16 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Malaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Levante | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCelta Vigo have won 5 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Celta Vigo 2-2 and beat Celta Vigo 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 9D 10L from the last 30 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Osasuna have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Napoli 2-1 and beat Norwich 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 11L from the last 26 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCelta Vigo
No reported absences
Osasuna
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Celta Vigo have averaged 1.8 corners per match at home; Osasuna 7.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Celta Vigo have generated 0.92 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Celta Vigo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
