Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse Prediction, Tips & Odds
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse
Match Preview
The model favours Cerezo Osaka to win against Shimizu S-pulse, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Cerezo Osaka currently sits in 5th place in the J1 League after their opening match, where they secured a solid victory with two goals scored and only one conceded. Their recent form has been impressive, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches, indicating a strong start to the season. On the other hand, Shimizu S-pulse is positioned 7th in the league, having also won their first game of the season with a clean sheet. Their form in the last five matches shows three wins, one draw, and one loss, suggesting they have been competitive. However, their overall goal-scoring output is lower than Cerezo Osaka's, which could be a critical factor in this matchup. According to the model, Cerezo Osaka has a higher win probability based on their recent form and league standing, while the expected score aligns with their attacking capabilities. One potential caveat for Cerezo is if they struggle to convert chances, which could allow Shimizu to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full method of this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis comes from an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team remains committed to providing data-driven insights for informed predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Cerezo Osaka manage games at home, conceding just 1.03 goals per match. Shimizu S-pulse score 1.12 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.1% probability.
Cerezo Osaka have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Cerezo Osaka are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.25 | 3.45 | 3.00 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 2.38 | 3.14 | 3.00 | 2.04 | 1.75 | 1.77 | 1.92 | |
| 2.40 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.47 | 3.25 | 3.11 | 2.12 | 1.78 | — | — | |
| 2.34 | 3.28 | 2.78 | 1.91 | 1.95 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 2.38 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.36 | 3.42 | 3.03 | 1.86 | 1.97 | 1.64 | 2.13 | |
| 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.05 | 1.86 | 1.81 | 1.68 | 2.02 | |
| 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 2.45 | 3.15 | 2.92 | 2.00 | 1.78 | 1.72 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 1.95 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.90 | 1.81 | 1.87 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cerezo Osaka leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Cerezo Osaka and Shimizu S-Pulse, Cerezo Osaka has won 6 times, with 2 draws and 2 victories for Shimizu S-Pulse. This record indicates a strong advantage for Cerezo Osaka, particularly highlighted by their ability to secure several decisive wins, such as a 4-1 and a 4-2. The matches have generally been competitive, with a mix of narrow victories, but there have also been some high-scoring encounters. Shimizu S-Pulse has not won against Cerezo Osaka since December 2021, which adds to the pressure in their head-to-head clashes.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Vissel Kobe | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Kashima | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 5 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  FC Tokyo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 9 | Cerezo Osaka | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 10 | DWLWL |
| 17 | Shimizu S-pulse | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DLLDL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonCerezo Osaka have won 10 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Tokyo Verdy 0-0 and beat Kashiwa Reysol 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 9L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Shimizu S-pulse have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Shimizu S-pulse 3-1 and lost to Cerezo Osaka 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 10D 12L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCerezo Osaka3-4-2-1Confirmed
Shimizu S-pulse4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersCerezo Osaka
No reported absences
Shimizu S-pulse
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Cerezo Osaka have averaged 5.6 corners per match at home; Shimizu S-pulse 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Cerezo Osaka have generated 2.53 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Cerezo Osaka player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
