Coritiba vs Corinthians Prediction, Tips & Odds
Coritiba vs Corinthians
Match Preview
The model favours Coritiba to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Coritiba currently sits in 9th place in the Serie A standings with 30 points from 22 matches, boasting a record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses. Their goal difference stands at -2, indicating a struggle defensively with 29 goals conceded. Despite recent form showing only one win in their last five matches, Coritiba's overall position reflects a competitive season thus far. On the other hand, Corinthians is positioned 11th in the table with 29 points, having played one match fewer than their opponents. They have secured 7 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal difference of +2, thanks to a solid defensive record of only 20 goals conceded. Their recent form features two wins and two draws in the last five matches, suggesting a more stable performance compared to Coritiba. Overall, the model gives Coritiba a win probability of around 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat could be Coritiba's inconsistency, particularly in their recent matches, which may affect their ability to secure the win. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 30% of matches. Corinthians average 1.1 goals per game.
Coritiba manage games at home, conceding just 1.23 goals per match. Corinthians score 1.05 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.1% probability.
Corinthians have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Corinthians are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Coritiba vs Corinthians| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.15 | 2.98 | 2.40 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 2.95 | 2.90 | 2.57 | 2.65 | 1.46 | 2.11 | 1.63 | |
| 3.00 | 2.80 | 2.60 | 2.63 | 1.47 | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| 3.09 | 2.98 | 2.66 | 2.75 | 1.48 | — | — | |
| 2.78 | 2.87 | 2.49 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.50 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 3.04 | 2.99 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 1.46 | 2.11 | 1.65 | |
| 3.05 | 2.85 | 2.55 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 2.04 | 1.70 | |
| 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.50 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
Betano | 3.05 | 3.00 | 2.60 | 2.67 | 1.50 | 2.07 | 1.70 |
Superbet | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.60 | 2.70 | 1.47 | 2.17 | 1.65 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.60 | 2.48 | 1.46 | 2.10 | 1.65 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Corinthians leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Coritiba and Corinthians, Corinthians has won 6 times, Coritiba has won once, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency towards Corinthians' dominance, with several matches ending in 3-1 victories for them. Coritiba's only win came in a 2-0 match in March 2026, while their last victory prior to that was a significant time ago. The frequent draws suggest that when Coritiba has managed to hold their ground, the matches have been closely contested, though Corinthians has generally been the stronger side historically.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 48 | LDWLW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 34 | DDDDD |
| 9 | Corinthians | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 32 | LWDDW |
| 10 | Coritiba | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 31 | DWLDL |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCoritiba have won 5 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Coritiba 2-1 and lost to Coritiba 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 11D 9L from the last 30 games (33% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Corinthians have won 7 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 10 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Corinthians 0-0 and beat RB Bragantino 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 13D 9L from the last 38 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
11 playersCoritiba5
Corinthians6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Daronco has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Coritiba have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Corinthians 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Corinthians have generated 1.01 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Corinthians player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
