Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro
Match Preview
The model favours Cruzeiro to win against Vasco DA Gama, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Cruzeiro currently sits in a strong sixth place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 33 points from 22 matches. Their season has been characterized by a solid performance, with nine wins and a relatively balanced goal difference of -1. The team has shown resilience, particularly in their recent form, going unbeaten in their last five matches. On the other hand, Vasco DA Gama is struggling at the bottom of the table in 19th place, with only 22 points to show from their 22 games. Their record of five wins, seven draws, and ten losses highlights their difficulties throughout the season. Despite some recent improvement, with one win and three draws in their last five matches, they remain vulnerable defensively, having conceded 34 goals. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for Cruzeiro, with the projected score being 2-1. However, a potential caveat for Cruzeiro is the possibility of complacency against a lower-ranked opponent. The full methodology of our prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Vasco DA Gama manage games at home, conceding just 1.26 goals per match. Cruzeiro score 1.35 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Cruzeiro have been the stronger side, winning 49% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Cruzeiro are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.56 | 3.20 | 2.71 | 2.05 | 1.74 | 1.78 | 1.90 | |
| 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.63 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.75 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.70 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.64 | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2.09 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
| 2.48 | 3.25 | 2.75 | 1.96 | 1.80 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.75 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 2.65 | 3.25 | 2.75 | 2.15 | 1.75 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.70 | 2.00 | 1.69 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cruzeiro leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between Vasco DA Gama and Cruzeiro, Vasco has won 2 times, there have been 5 draws, and Cruzeiro has secured 3 victories. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws, including a recent 3-3 tie. While Vasco achieved a couple of narrow wins, Cruzeiro has also demonstrated their strength with a decisive 3-0 victory in 2022. Overall, the results suggest that the encounters tend to be closely contested, with both teams capable of scoring while also sharing a tendency for low-scoring draws.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 51 | WLDWL |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 37 | WDDDD |
| 19 | Vasco DA Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 22 | LLDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 | |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVasco DA Gama have won 9 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Vasco DA Gama 0-3 and drew with Vasco DA Gama 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 15D 14L from the last 42 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Cruzeiro have won 8 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Flamengo 2-1 and beat Corinthians 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 14D 8L from the last 43 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVasco DA Gama
No reported absences
Cruzeiro
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Vasco DA Gama have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; Cruzeiro 6.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Cruzeiro have generated 1.78 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 49% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Cruzeiro player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
