Flamengo vs Botafogo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Flamengo vs Botafogo
Match Preview
The model favours Flamengo to win against Botafogo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Flamengo currently sits in second place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 42 points from 21 matches with 12 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses. Their goals for and against statistics are impressive, with 39 goals scored and only 18 conceded, resulting in a goal difference of +21. Flamengo's recent form shows resilience, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, indicating a strong ability to secure results. In contrast, Botafogo finds itself in 11th position with 30 points from the same number of matches. Their record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses reflects struggles this season, especially in defence, where they have conceded 33 goals, leading to a modest goal difference of +2. Their recent form is concerning, having managed just one win alongside two draws and two losses in their last five matches, which raises questions about their consistency and ability to compete against top teams like Flamengo. The model gives Flamengo a win probability of approximately 60%, with the predicted score of 2-1 suggesting a relatively close contest. However, Botafogo could pose a threat if they manage to tighten their defence and convert scoring opportunities effectively. The full prediction methodology, which includes expected goals and actual results analysis, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
Flamengo have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Flamengo win as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Flamengo clean sheets, in line with their 40% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Flamengo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Flamengo vs Botafogo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.43 | 4.35 | 7.00 | 1.74 | 2.05 | 1.87 | 1.81 | |
| 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.50 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.47 | 4.47 | 7.20 | 1.78 | 2.09 | 1.87 | 1.83 | |
| 1.42 | 4.40 | 7.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.89 | 1.82 | |
| 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.50 | 1.73 | 2.05 | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 1.47 | 4.45 | 6.90 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 1.90 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flamengo leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between Flamengo and Botafogo, Flamengo has won 7 times, drawn once, and Botafogo has won 2 times. The results indicate a generally favorable trend for Flamengo, with several victories by comfortable margins, such as the 3-0 wins. However, Botafogo's two victories include a significant 4-1 win, suggesting they can compete strongly on their day. The matches have seen a mix of scorelines, with some tightly contested games, like the 1-0 results, but overall, Flamengo has dominated this recent head-to-head record.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 51 | WLDWL |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 37 | WDDDD |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 30 | LDWDW |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 22 | LLDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 | |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFlamengo have won 15 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Flamengo 2-1 and beat Flamengo 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 27W 9D 6L from the last 42 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Botafogo have won 8 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Vitoria 1-0 and lost to Cienciano 6-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 12L from the last 38 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFlamengo
No reported absences
Botafogo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Flamengo have averaged 5.6 corners per match at home; Botafogo 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Flamengo have generated 1.41 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 64% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flamengo player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
