Defensa Y Justicia vs Newells Old Boys Prediction, Tips & Odds
Defensa Y Justicia vs Newells Old Boys
Match Preview
The model favours Defensa Y Justicia to win against Newells Old Boys, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Defensa Y Justicia currently sits in 10th place in the league standings, with a record of four wins, seven draws, and five losses from their 16 matches. Despite struggling recently with four consecutive losses, they have a slightly stronger goal difference compared to their opponents, which may provide a slight edge in this matchup. On the other hand, Newells Old Boys occupies 14th position, having secured three wins, six draws, and seven losses this season. Their recent form, however, shows improvement, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, indicating they are difficult to beat at the moment. Nevertheless, their overall goal difference of -12 highlights defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited by Defensa Y Justicia. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Defensa Y Justicia, with a projected score of 1-0. A key market percentage suggests that the under 2.5 goals market could be worth considering, given both teams' recent scoring difficulties. However, should Newells Old Boys continue their positive trend, they could cause an upset. For a full breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the “How We Reached This Prediction” section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilises an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Defensa Y Justicia have kept a clean sheet in 26% of matches. Newells Old Boys average 0.9 goals per game.
Defensa Y Justicia manage games at home, conceding just 1.39 goals per match. Newells Old Boys score 0.86 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.5% probability.
Defensa Y Justicia have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Defensa Y Justicia win as the most likely scoreline at 18.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Defensa Y Justicia clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Defensa Y Justicia are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Defensa Y Justicia vs Newells Old Boys| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.12 | 3.00 | 3.75 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 2.03 | 3.04 | 3.98 | 2.50 | 1.51 | 2.11 | 1.63 | |
| 2.00 | 3.00 | 4.10 | 2.55 | 1.45 | 2.10 | 1.65 | |
| 2.08 | 3.14 | 4.26 | 2.57 | 1.55 | — | — | |
| 2.03 | 2.94 | 3.62 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 2.88 | 3.70 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.67 | |
| 2.05 | 3.10 | 4.20 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 2.07 | 3.10 | 4.06 | 2.52 | 1.52 | 2.11 | 1.65 | |
| 2.07 | 3.05 | 3.85 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.02 | 1.71 | |
| 2.30 | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.05 | 1.67 | |
Betano | 2.10 | 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.10 | 1.67 |
Superbet | 2.10 | 3.05 | 4.00 | 2.57 | 1.51 | 2.15 | 1.66 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.00 | 4.33 | 2.34 | 1.51 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Defensa Y Justicia leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between Defensa Y Justicia and Newells Old Boys, Defensa Y Justicia has won 5 times, Newells Old Boys has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several narrow victories, as seen in five matches decided by a single goal. However, Newells Old Boys has experienced a heavier defeat, with a 3-0 loss in their most recent encounter. The last time Newells Old Boys secured a victory was in 2023, suggesting that the head-to-head record is relatively balanced, with both teams capable of winning.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | WLWDL |
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | WLLWL |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | LLLLL |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | DWDLL |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | DWWWL |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 |  Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 | DLLLD |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LDLWL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | WLLWD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDefensa Y Justicia have won 4 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Newells Old Boys 2-1 and beat Deportivo Riestra 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 8D 7L from the last 23 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Newells Old Boys have won 2 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Newells Old Boys 2-1 and lost to Independiente 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 7D 11L from the last 22 games (18% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersDefensa Y Justicia
No reported absences
Newells Old Boys
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Carranza has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Defensa Y Justicia have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Newells Old Boys 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Defensa Y Justicia have generated 1.57 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Defensa Y Justicia player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
