Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma
Match Preview
The model favours Fenerbahçe to win against AS Roma, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fenerbahçe has shown solid form recently, recording three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This consistency in performance positions them well in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League, indicating a team that is difficult to beat at home. AS Roma, on the other hand, has struggled for consistency, managing only two wins in their last five matches and suffering two losses. Their recent form suggests they may find it challenging to secure a positive result against a confident Fenerbahçe side. The disparity in form could play a crucial role in the outcome of this match. According to the model, Fenerbahçe has a strong win probability, reflecting their recent performances and home advantage. However, a potential caveat is the unpredictability of knockout stage football; AS Roma could exploit any defensive lapses. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines their in-house model, which evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Fenerbahçe have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Fenerbahçe are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.10 | 3.45 | 2.18 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 3.60 | 3.70 | 2.07 | 1.61 | 2.35 | 1.50 | 2.41 | |
| 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.50 | |
| 3.65 | 3.69 | 2.07 | 1.62 | 2.40 | — | — | |
| 3.04 | 3.33 | 2.08 | 1.69 | 2.23 | — | — | |
| 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.40 | |
| 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.66 | 3.76 | 2.10 | 1.66 | 2.42 | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.17 | 1.67 | 2.18 | 1.54 | 2.43 | |
| 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 3.45 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 1.70 | 2.20 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Superbet | 3.30 | 3.55 | 2.15 | 1.64 | 2.27 | 1.55 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.56 | 2.22 | 1.45 | 2.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and AS Roma shows one draw from their only encounter. The match ended in a 1-1 tie, indicating a balanced contest without a decisive winner. This result suggests a tightly contested game, where both teams managed to score, reflecting a competitive nature rather than one side dominating. As there are no wins for either team in their history against each other, it remains to be seen how future encounters will unfold.
UEFA Champions League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AEK Athens FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 |  Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | Fenerbahçe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDWWD |
| 28 | AS Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 |  Viking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 36 |  Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFenerbahçe have won 10 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Beşiktaş 1-2 and beat Konyaspor 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 5D 5L from the last 30 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
AS Roma have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Lecce 0-4 and drew with Borussia Dortmund 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 7L from the last 30 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFenerbahçe4-3-3Confirmed
AS Roma3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersFenerbahçe
No reported absences
AS Roma
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Fenerbahçe have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; AS Roma 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fenerbahçe have generated 1.85 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 7.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fenerbahçe player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.