FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction, Tips & Odds
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
Match Preview
The model favours FSV Mainz 05 to win against SC Paderborn 07, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Mainz enters the new season in 10th position, having built momentum with a strong finish last season, achieving four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This solid form indicates a team that is well-prepared and confident heading into their first match of the season. On the other hand, SC Paderborn 07 finds itself at the bottom of the standings, positioned 18th. While they have also shown resilience with their recent form, recording three wins and two draws in their last five matches, they face a tough challenge as they look to transition from their previous season's struggles into a more competitive campaign. The model gives Mainz a win probability of approximately 60%, projecting a score of 2-1. A key market indicator suggests that Mainz is favoured to win at home. However, one caveat to consider is that both teams are starting fresh this season, and unexpected performances can occur as players adjust. For a deeper understanding of our prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains our in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
FSV Mainz 05 have been the stronger side, winning 60% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature FSV Mainz 05 clean sheets, in line with their 40% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FSV Mainz 05 are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.45 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| 1.71 | 4.15 | 4.85 | 1.70 | 2.18 | 1.66 | 2.09 | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.50 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
| 1.68 | 4.06 | 4.72 | 1.68 | 2.19 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.53 | 4.07 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.50 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.74 | 4.22 | 4.93 | 1.75 | 2.25 | 1.66 | 2.12 | |
| 1.66 | 3.90 | 4.75 | 1.68 | 2.17 | 1.66 | 2.10 | |
| 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 3.95 | 4.65 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.40 | 1.65 | 2.07 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (FSV Mainz 05 leads 3-0)In their last four encounters, FSV Mainz 05 has won three times, with one match ending in a draw, while SC Paderborn 07 has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided affair, highlighted by Mainz's 5-0 triumph in 2015 and a 2-0 win most recently in 2020. The matches have featured a mix of narrow victories, such as the 2-1 result in 2019, alongside a notable draw. Paderborn's inability to win in this stretch reflects a challenging historical matchup against Mainz.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 |  FC Schalke 04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 |  SV Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | SC Paderborn 07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFSV Mainz 05 have won 11 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat FSV Mainz 05 2-1 and beat FSV Mainz 05 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 7D 5L from the last 30 games (60% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
SC Paderborn 07 have won 3 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include drew with SC Paderborn 07 2-2 and beat VfL Osnabrück 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 6D 2L from the last 15 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFSV Mainz 05
No reported absences
SC Paderborn 07
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
FSV Mainz 05 average 2.6 goals per match at home; SC Paderborn 07 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FSV Mainz 05 have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 60% of their matches and averaging 2.6 goals per game. FSV Mainz 05 player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
