Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart
Match Preview
The model favours Bayern München to win against VfB Stuttgart, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. As the reigning champions, Bayern starts the season in a strong position. They finished the previous season with four wins in their last five matches, demonstrating their capability to perform under pressure. Their dominant attacking style and solid home record at the Allianz Arena are crucial factors that bolster their chances. VfB Stuttgart, currently positioned fourth, also enters the season with momentum, having gone unbeaten in their last five matches, with four wins and one draw. This strong finish to the previous season suggests they can be competitive. However, they will need to show they can maintain that form against top-tier opponents like Bayern. Their ability to score and defend effectively will be tested in this matchup. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Bayern München and a 25% for VfB Stuttgart, with a key market percentage suggesting Bayern is a favourite to cover the spread. One caveat to consider is that if Stuttgart can replicate their recent form and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Bayern, they could pull off an upset. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on our in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (5.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.1% probability.
Bayern München have been the stronger side, winning 78% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Bayern München win as the most likely scoreline at 11.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Bayern München are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.28 | 6.00 | 8.10 | 1.25 | 3.95 | 1.45 | 2.60 | |
| 1.32 | 6.20 | 8.80 | 1.19 | 3.75 | 1.44 | 2.57 | |
| 1.25 | 6.00 | 8.50 | 1.20 | 4.00 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.29 | 6.10 | 7.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.27 | 5.42 | 6.47 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.00 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.27 | 6.50 | 8.50 | 1.25 | 4.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.34 | 6.30 | 8.95 | 1.19 | 3.75 | 1.44 | 2.61 | |
| 1.27 | 6.25 | 8.50 | 1.20 | 4.35 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 1.30 | 5.50 | 7.50 | 1.25 | 3.90 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
Betano | 1.31 | 6.10 | 8.25 | 1.26 | 3.95 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.75 | 8.00 | 1.22 | 4.10 | 1.40 | 2.63 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bayern München leads 8-1)In the last 10 matches between Bayern München and VfB Stuttgart, Bayern has won 8 times, Stuttgart has won once, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a strong dominance by Bayern, with several heavy wins, including a 5-0 and a 4-0 victory. Only one match ended in a draw, suggesting that encounters are often decisive. Stuttgart's last victory against Bayern came over two years ago, making it clear that they have struggled to compete effectively in recent meetings. Overall, the head-to-head record illustrates a significant advantage for Bayern.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 |  FC Schalke 04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 |  SV Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBayern München have won 12 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Bayern München 3-1 and beat Bayern München 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 25W 4D 3L from the last 32 games (78% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
VfB Stuttgart have won 7 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat VfB Stuttgart 0-4 and lost to Fulham 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 6D 8L from the last 30 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBayern München
No reported absences
VfB Stuttgart
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Bayern München have averaged 8.2 corners per match at home; VfB Stuttgart 7.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bayern München have generated 3.38 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 78% of them. They put 9.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bayern München player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
