Benfica vs Estoril Prediction, Tips & Odds
Benfica vs Estoril
Match Preview
The model favours Benfica to win against Estoril, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Benfica currently sits in 4th place in the Primeira Liga standings after two matches, with a strong start to the season that includes one win and one draw. They have been particularly effective in attack, scoring nine goals while conceding only two, reflecting a positive goal difference of seven. Their form over the last five matches shows three wins and two draws, indicating a solid run. On the other hand, Estoril is struggling in 13th place with just one point from their two matches, having drawn once and lost once. Their offensive struggles are evident, as they have only managed to score one goal while conceding three. Their recent form is concerning, with no wins in their last five matches, which includes three draws and two losses. This trend suggests they may find it challenging to compete effectively against a stronger side like Benfica. The model gives Benfica a win probability of approximately 70%, with a projected score of 3-1. While the data heavily favours Benfica, an unexpected defensive lapse or an inspired performance from Estoril could alter the outcome. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our analysis is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.7% probability.
Benfica have been the stronger side, winning 62% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 Benfica win as the most likely scoreline at 14.7% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Benfica clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Benfica are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Benfica vs Estoril| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.13 | 7.75 | 18.50 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
| 1.10 | 9.20 | 19.75 | 1.26 | 3.24 | 2.03 | 1.68 | |
| 1.10 | 9.50 | 18.00 | — | — | 2.25 | 1.62 | |
| 1.12 | 8.50 | 17.00 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
| 1.14 | 8.00 | 17.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.11 | 11.50 | 24.00 | 1.26 | 3.24 | 2.03 | 1.70 | |
Betano | 1.14 | 8.50 | 17.50 | 1.34 | 3.25 | 2.10 | 1.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Benfica leads 9-0)In the last 10 matches between Benfica and Estoril, Benfica has won 9 times, with 1 draw and Estoril yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance by Benfica, highlighted by several decisive wins, including a 5-1 victory in November 2022. While there has been one draw, the majority of matches have been won by Benfica with a mix of narrow and more comfortable margins, suggesting that Estoril has struggled to keep pace. The absence of a win for Estoril in this period underscores a significant imbalance in their encounters.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | WWD |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  Maritimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | LWW |
| 6 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 4 | WD |
| 15 | Estoril | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | LLD |
| 16 |  Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 | LD |
| 17 |  Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | LDL |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBenfica have won 12 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Aarhus 3-1 and drew with Academico Viseu 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 7D 4L from the last 29 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Estoril have won 3 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Nacional 2-0 and drew with CF Os Belenenses 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 7D 12L from the last 26 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBenfica
No reported absences
Estoril
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Benfica have averaged 8.6 corners per match at home; Estoril 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Benfica have generated 2.79 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 62% of them. They put 7.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Benfica player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
