GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia Prediction, Tips & Odds
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia
Match Preview
The model favours GIL Vicente to win against Casa Pia, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. GIL Vicente currently sits in second place in the Primeira Liga standings, having won their opening match of the season without conceding a goal. Their positive goal difference of +1 highlights a solid start, and their recent form shows two wins, two draws, and one loss over the last five matches, suggesting a competitive edge. In contrast, Casa Pia finds themselves in a precarious position at 17th after losing their opening fixture. With no goals scored and one conceded, their current goal difference of -1 indicates struggles in both attack and defense. Their recent form has also been concerning, with only two wins in their last five matches, which includes three losses, pointing to potential issues that could affect their performance. The model gives GIL Vicente a strong win probability, projecting a score of 2-0, with Casa Pia facing a challenging matchup. However, the lack of comprehensive season stats means this prediction carries some uncertainty, especially if Casa Pia can turn their form around. The full methodology used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team relies on an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 22% of matches. Casa Pia average 0.8 goals per game.
GIL Vicente manage games at home, conceding just 1.39 goals per match. Casa Pia score 0.84 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 19.7% probability.
GIL Vicente have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 GIL Vicente win as the most likely scoreline at 19.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature GIL Vicente clean sheets, in line with their 22% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. GIL Vicente are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.66 | 3.45 | 5.60 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.10 | 1.65 | |
| 1.71 | 3.50 | 4.95 | 2.26 | 1.62 | 2.10 | 1.64 | |
| 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.00 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 2.10 | 1.73 | |
| 1.74 | 3.60 | 5.24 | 2.31 | 1.65 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.20 | 4.58 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.80 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.25 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 1.78 | 3.64 | 5.15 | 2.33 | 1.66 | 2.10 | 1.66 | |
| 1.67 | 3.55 | 5.60 | 2.32 | 1.52 | 2.23 | 1.55 | |
| 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.80 | 2.25 | 1.60 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.65 | 5.50 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 2.12 | 1.67 |
Superbet | 1.72 | 3.55 | 5.25 | 2.32 | 1.61 | 2.20 | 1.63 |
BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.40 | 5.00 | 2.18 | 1.58 | 2.15 | 1.62 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (GIL Vicente leads 4-1)In the last nine encounters between GIL Vicente and Casa Pia, GIL Vicente has won four matches, drawn four, and Casa Pia has won only once. The scorelines indicate a competitive but slightly favorable record for GIL Vicente, with several draws suggesting tightly contested matches. Notably, GIL Vicente's victories include a mix of narrow wins, such as 1-0 and 2-1, alongside a more decisive 3-1 win. Casa Pia's last win occurred over a year ago, highlighting a challenging period in their recent head-to-head matchups. Overall, this record reflects a closely matched rivalry, with GIL Vicente holding a slight edge.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Maritimo | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 4 | WD |
| 5 |  Nacional | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 8 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16 |  Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGIL Vicente have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Rio Ave 1-0 and drew with Moreirense 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 8D 7L from the last 23 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Casa Pia have won 2 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Casa Pia 1-0 and lost to Leixoes 6-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 9D 11L from the last 25 games (20% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGIL Vicente
No reported absences
Casa Pia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Rodrigues has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Rodrigues to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
GIL Vicente have averaged 6.5 corners per match at home; Casa Pia 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
GIL Vicente have generated 1.11 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 2.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. GIL Vicente player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
