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Arouca vs Maritimo Prediction, Tips & Odds

Arouca vs Maritimo

Primeira LigaRegular Season - 4
Arouca
#1 · Primeira Liga
WWLDD
VS
Maritimo
#3 · Primeira Liga
WDDWL

Match Preview

The model favours Arouca to win this match against Maritimo, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Both teams are currently tied on points in the league, each having won their opening match of the season, but Arouca holds a slight edge in goal difference, which may play a role in this matchup. Arouca's season has started positively, sitting in 6th place with a solid win in their first game. Their defensive strength is evident, having conceded no goals so far, which can be crucial in tight matches. Their recent form shows two wins, two draws, and one loss in the last five matches, indicating a resilient side that can compete effectively. Maritimo, on the other hand, is positioned just above Arouca in 5th place, also with a win in their opening fixture. Their form mirrors that of Arouca, with a similar record in the last five matches. However, they have shown a tendency to drop points in draws, which could be a concern moving forward. The model output indicates a win probability of 55% for Arouca, suggesting they are more likely to secure the victory. However, a potential caveat is that Maritimo's ability to exploit any defensive lapses could change the game's dynamics. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.

Head to Head

Last 10 Meetings (Arouca leads 5-2)
5 Arouca3 Draw2 Maritimo
Apr 23
Arouca
1-0
Maritimo
Primeira Liga
Oct 22
Maritimo
1-1
Arouca
Primeira Liga
Feb 22
Arouca
0-3
Maritimo
Primeira Liga
Sept 21
Maritimo
2-2
Arouca
Primeira Liga
Mar 17
Maritimo
3-1
Arouca
Primeira Liga
Oct 16
Arouca
1-0
Maritimo
Primeira Liga
Apr 16
Maritimo
1-2
Arouca
Primeira Liga
Dec 15
Arouca
4-1
Maritimo
Primeira Liga
May 15
Maritimo
1-1
Arouca
Primeira Liga
Dec 14
Arouca
1-0
Maritimo
Primeira Liga

In the last 10 matches between Arouca and Maritimo, Arouca has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Maritimo has won 2 times. The scorelines indicate a competitive yet slightly favorable record for Arouca, with several tightly contested matches, including three draws. However, Arouca has also secured some decisive victories, such as a 4-1 win in December 2015. Maritimo's last win over Arouca was in February 2022, suggesting that Arouca has had the upper hand more recently in their encounters.

Primeira Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Arouca
22005056
WW
2
FC Porto
22004046
WW
3
Maritimo
22003126
WW
4
Benfica
21109274
WD
5
Nacional
21104224
WD
6
Santa Clara
21103214
WD
16
Vitória SC
200224-20
LL
17
Rio Ave
200203-30
LL
18
Casa Pia
200208-80
LL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
AroucaHome
1W0D0L
1 playedGF 4 · GA 03.00 pts/game
MaritimoAway
1W0D0L
1 playedGF 2 · GA 13.00 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
AroucaMaritimo
1.44Goals p.g.1.08
1.28Goals conceded p.g.1.25
36%Clean sheets33%
44%Win rate42%
2.72Avg goals in match2.33
1.35xG per game1.28
-0.36xGA per game0.88
56%Possession %39%
6.0Shots on target / game4.0
4.5Corners per game2.0
Arouca
Recent Form

Arouca have won 5 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Arouca 3-1 and drew with Arouca 2-2.

Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 10L from the last 25 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: AroucaAll competitions
08 Aug
Vitória SC
0-1
Arouca
Primeira Liga
01 Aug
Lusitânia Lourosa
0-2
Arouca
Friendlies Clubs
25 Jul
Santa Clara
3-0
Arouca
Friendlies Clubs
22 Jul
Famalicao
0-0
Arouca
Friendlies Clubs
18 Jul
Feirense
0-0
Arouca
Friendlies Clubs
11 Jul
Rio Ave
2-1
Arouca
Friendlies Clubs
11
Win
44%
4
Draw
16%
10
Lost
40%
Maritimo
Recent Form

Maritimo have won 1 of their last 3 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Penafiel 1-0 and beat Benfica B 1-2.

Overall, the wider run reads 5W 2D 5L from the last 12 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: MaritimoAll competitions
08 Aug
Maritimo
1-0
Casa Pia
Primeira Liga
29 Jul
Maritimo
1-1
Estrela Calheta
Friendlies Clubs
25 Jul
Maritimo
0-0
Machico
Friendlies Clubs
22 Jul
Maritimo
2-0
Camacha
Friendlies Clubs
17 Jul
Maritimo
1-5
Leixoes
Friendlies Clubs
14 Jul
Maritimo
2-0
AVS
Friendlies Clubs
5
Win
42%
2
Draw
17%
5
Lost
42%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Arouca

No reported absences

Maritimo

No reported absences

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.