Arouca vs Maritimo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Arouca vs Maritimo


Match Preview
The model favours Arouca to win this match against Maritimo, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Both teams are currently tied on points in the league, each having won their opening match of the season, but Arouca holds a slight edge in goal difference, which may play a role in this matchup. Arouca's season has started positively, sitting in 6th place with a solid win in their first game. Their defensive strength is evident, having conceded no goals so far, which can be crucial in tight matches. Their recent form shows two wins, two draws, and one loss in the last five matches, indicating a resilient side that can compete effectively. Maritimo, on the other hand, is positioned just above Arouca in 5th place, also with a win in their opening fixture. Their form mirrors that of Arouca, with a similar record in the last five matches. However, they have shown a tendency to drop points in draws, which could be a concern moving forward. The model output indicates a win probability of 55% for Arouca, suggesting they are more likely to secure the victory. However, a potential caveat is that Maritimo's ability to exploit any defensive lapses could change the game's dynamics. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Head to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Arouca leads 5-2)



















In the last 10 matches between Arouca and Maritimo, Arouca has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Maritimo has won 2 times. The scorelines indicate a competitive yet slightly favorable record for Arouca, with several tightly contested matches, including three draws. However, Arouca has also secured some decisive victories, such as a 4-1 win in December 2015. Maritimo's last win over Arouca was in February 2022, suggesting that Arouca has had the upper hand more recently in their encounters.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | WW | |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 | WW | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WW | |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 4 | WD | |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | WD | |
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | WD | |
| 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | LL | |
| 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | LL | |
| 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 Season
Arouca have won 5 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Arouca 3-1 and drew with Arouca 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 10L from the last 25 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.













Maritimo have won 1 of their last 3 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Penafiel 1-0 and beat Benfica B 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 2D 5L from the last 12 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.












Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 players
Arouca
No reported absences
Maritimo
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.






