Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta Prediction, Tips & Odds
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta
Match Preview
The model favours Hapoel Tel Aviv to win against Atalanta, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Hapoel Tel Aviv has shown a resilient form lately, recording two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. This consistency will be crucial as they aim to leverage their home advantage at Bloomfield Stadium, where their supporters can provide an important boost. Atalanta, on the other hand, has had a mixed bag of results with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their recent five matches. Their fluctuating performance may hinder their ability to find rhythm in this away fixture. While they have the talent to challenge, their inconsistency could be a significant factor as they face a determined Hapoel Tel Aviv side. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Hapoel Tel Aviv, with the projected score being 2-1. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of Hapoel Tel Aviv scoring over 1.5 goals, which stands at a strong 65%. However, Atalanta’s ability to exploit defensive gaps could present a challenge, especially if they find their attacking form. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.9% probability.
Atalanta have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 Atalanta win as the most likely scoreline at 14.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Atalanta are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 6.60 | 4.35 | 1.45 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.75 | 1.93 | |
| 6.50 | 4.33 | 1.44 | 1.70 | 2.09 | 1.84 | 1.84 | |
| 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 6.15 | 4.50 | 1.47 | 1.72 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 5.32 | 3.80 | 1.43 | 1.72 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 5.75 | 4.50 | 1.40 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 6.57 | 4.56 | 1.49 | 1.69 | 2.22 | 1.79 | 1.92 | |
| 6.25 | 4.25 | 1.49 | 1.61 | 2.15 | 1.73 | 1.96 | |
Betano | 6.30 | 4.75 | 1.53 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
Superbet | 6.10 | 4.55 | 1.45 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.83 | 1.88 |
BetVictor | 6.50 | 4.40 | 1.44 | 1.63 | 2.09 | 1.78 | 1.91 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Hapoel Tel Aviv and Atalanta shows 0 wins for Hapoel Tel Aviv, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Atalanta. Their only encounter ended in a 0-0 draw, indicating a tightly contested match with neither side able to break the deadlock. This result suggests a balanced matchup, with both teams likely having had their chances, but neither able to convert. The absence of a decisive win for either team in their single fixture points to a potentially competitive dynamic in future meetings.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonHapoel Tel Aviv have won 2 of their last 5 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Hapoel Tel Aviv 0-2 and beat Hapoel Tel Aviv 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 5D 4L from the last 14 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Atalanta have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Atalanta 2-1 and beat Hapoel Tel Aviv 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 9L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedHapoel Tel Aviv4-2-3-1Confirmed
Atalanta4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersHapoel Tel Aviv
No reported absences
Atalanta
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Pignard has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Hapoel Tel Aviv have averaged 2.0 corners per match at home; Atalanta 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atalanta have generated 1.05 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atalanta player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.