Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Tips & Odds
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar
Match Preview
The model favours AZ Alkmaar to win against Heerenveen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. AZ Alkmaar currently sits at the top of the Eredivisie standings with a perfect record of three wins from three matches, scoring eight goals while conceding just one. Their strong goal difference of +7 highlights their offensive prowess and defensive solidity, making them a formidable opponent. In contrast, Heerenveen occupies the ninth position with only one win from their three matches. They have scored three goals but conceded four, resulting in a goal difference of -1. While they have shown some resilience with two wins in their last five matches, their overall performance has been inconsistent this season, which may hinder their chances against a dominant team like AZ. The model gives AZ Alkmaar a win probability of approximately 70%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that if Heerenveen can capitalize on any defensive lapses from AZ, they could pose a threat. The full methodology of our predictions, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizes an in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.4% probability.
AZ Alkmaar have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 AZ Alkmaar win as the most likely scoreline at 12.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. AZ Alkmaar are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.85 | 4.10 | 1.76 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.42 | 2.62 | |
| 3.68 | 3.98 | 1.82 | 1.36 | 2.72 | 1.39 | 2.72 | |
| 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.75 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.44 | 2.70 | |
| 3.81 | 4.21 | 1.87 | 1.40 | 3.04 | — | — | |
| 3.33 | 3.54 | 1.77 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.75 | 1.85 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 3.70 | 4.10 | 1.85 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 3.78 | 4.10 | 1.87 | 1.36 | 2.72 | 1.39 | 2.77 | |
| 3.90 | 3.95 | 1.78 | 1.43 | 2.75 | 1.43 | 2.63 | |
Betano | 3.90 | 4.05 | 1.83 | 1.47 | 2.80 | 1.44 | 2.67 |
Superbet | 3.80 | 4.10 | 1.83 | 1.46 | 2.75 | 1.45 | 2.62 |
BetVictor | 3.60 | 4.10 | 1.83 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (AZ Alkmaar leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar, AZ Alkmaar leads with 6 wins, while Heerenveen has won 2 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for AZ Alkmaar to secure decisive victories, as evidenced by their 9-1 win in 2024, alongside a few other heavy wins. Heerenveen's victories have been narrower, with a maximum margin of 2 goals. The draw frequency suggests occasional tight contests, but overall, AZ Alkmaar has dominated this matchup in recent history. Heerenveen's last win against AZ Alkmaar came in 2025.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 12 | Heerenveen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | LDLDW |
| 16 |  Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHeerenveen have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Heerenveen 0-2 and beat Heerenveen 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 8L from the last 25 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
AZ Alkmaar have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat AZ Alkmaar 2-3 and beat Fortuna Sittard 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 8D 7L from the last 33 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersHeerenveen3
AZ Alkmaar3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Jeroen Manschot has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Heerenveen have averaged 5.8 corners per match at home; AZ Alkmaar 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AZ Alkmaar have generated 2.11 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 55% of them. They put 6.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AZ Alkmaar player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
