Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima
Match Preview
The model favours Kashima to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in third place in the J1 League, Kashima has shown impressive form this season, winning four of their six matches. Their goal-scoring prowess is evident, with 13 goals scored, although they have also conceded 11, leading to a goal difference of 2. This attacking capability, combined with their recent form of four wins in their last five matches, makes them a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Kawasaki Frontale finds themselves in 10th place, having secured only two victories in six matches. Their season so far has been a mixed bag, with a record of two wins, three draws, and one loss. While they have managed to score 12 goals, their defensive record is slightly concerning, having conceded 9 goals and maintaining a goal difference of 3. Their recent form includes three wins, one draw, and one loss, indicating potential for improvement but also highlighting their inconsistency. The model output suggests a win probability of around 60% for Kashima, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a key caveat is that Kawasaki, despite their lower standing, has the potential to turn their form around at home, which could lead to an upset. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results across the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Kashima have been the stronger side, winning 73% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Kashima are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.67 | 3.58 | 2.38 | 1.61 | 2.23 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 2.79 | 3.75 | 2.45 | 1.65 | 2.33 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.28 | 2.35 | 1.63 | 2.26 | — | — | |
| 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.45 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.74 | 3.68 | 2.44 | 1.64 | 2.28 | 1.50 | 2.42 | |
Betano | 2.60 | 3.55 | 2.47 | 1.65 | 2.22 | 1.52 | 2.37 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.70 | 2.40 | 1.59 | 2.16 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 5-5)The head-to-head record between Kawasaki Frontale and Kashima stands at 5 wins for each side with no draws in their last 10 matches. This balanced record indicates a competitive rivalry, with both teams capable of securing victories. The scorelines reveal a mix of narrow and slightly more decisive wins, with Kawasaki Frontale achieving a notable 3-0 victory in their most recent encounter. However, Kashima has also claimed some tight wins, including a 2-1 result. Overall, the absence of draws suggests that each match tends to produce a clear winner, reflecting the evenly matched nature of these two teams.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Vissel Kobe | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 3 | Kashima | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 5 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  FC Tokyo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 10 | Kawasaki Frontale | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 9 | WLWDD |
| 18 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DLLDL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonKawasaki Frontale have won 9 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Shimizu S-pulse 3-1 and beat JEF United Chiba 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 13L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Kashima have won 7 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Kashima 4-2 and beat Tokyo Verdy 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 5D 3L from the last 30 games (73% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedKawasaki Frontale4-2-3-1Confirmed
Kashima4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersKawasaki Frontale
No reported absences
Kashima
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Kawasaki Frontale have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Kashima 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Kashima have generated 1.62 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 73% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Kashima player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
