Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-pulse Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-pulse
Match Preview
The model favours Kawasaki Frontale to win against Shimizu S-pulse, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Despite a slow start to the season, sitting in 14th place with three draws from three matches, Kawasaki has shown resilience. They have managed to score four goals while conceding the same number, indicating a balanced but unproductive attack thus far. Their recent form, with four draws and just one loss in the last five matches, suggests they are capable of grinding out results. On the other hand, Shimizu S-pulse is currently in 15th place, having secured one win but suffering two losses in their three matches. Their total of just one goal scored indicates significant struggles in their attack, while they have conceded two goals, leading to a negative goal difference. Their recent form is mixed, with three wins in five matches but a concerning two consecutive losses, which could impact their morale heading into this fixture. The model output gives Kawasaki Frontale a win probability of around 55%, with the projected score remaining close at 1-0. However, a potential caveat for Kawasaki could be their inability to convert draws into wins, which may allow Shimizu to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full method behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis comes from an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.7% probability.
Kawasaki Frontale have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Kawasaki Frontale are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-pulse| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.85 | 3.65 | 3.85 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 1.85 | 3.62 | 3.92 | 1.68 | 2.14 | 1.59 | 2.18 | |
| 1.80 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 1.89 | 3.75 | 4.17 | 1.72 | 2.21 | — | — | |
| 1.86 | 3.38 | 3.38 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.83 | 3.50 | 3.80 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.89 | 3.70 | 4.01 | 1.70 | 2.17 | 1.59 | 2.21 | |
| 1.78 | 3.70 | 3.90 | 1.61 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 1.87 | 3.55 | 3.95 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.35 |
Superbet | 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.62 | 2.22 | 1.56 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.80 | 4.00 | 1.64 | 2.07 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Kawasaki Frontale leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Kawasaki Frontale and Shimizu S-pulse, Kawasaki has won 7 times, with 2 draws and Shimizu winning just once. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided affair, with Kawasaki achieving heavy victories, including a 6-0 win and a 5-3 win, while Shimizu's lone victory was a narrow 3-2 result. Draws have occurred twice, suggesting that while Shimizu can occasionally hold their ground, they have not won against Kawasaki since 2023. Overall, the historical record strongly favors Kawasaki Frontale.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Vissel Kobe | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Kashima | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 5 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  FC Tokyo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 10 | Kawasaki Frontale | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 9 | WLWDD |
| 17 | Shimizu S-pulse | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DLLDL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonKawasaki Frontale have won 9 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Shimizu S-pulse 3-1 and beat JEF United Chiba 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 13L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Shimizu S-pulse have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Shimizu S-pulse 3-1 and lost to Cerezo Osaka 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 10D 12L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedKawasaki Frontale4-2-3-1Confirmed
Shimizu S-pulse4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersKawasaki Frontale
No reported absences
Shimizu S-pulse
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Kawasaki Frontale have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Shimizu S-pulse 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Kawasaki Frontale have generated 1.88 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Kawasaki Frontale player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
